Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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366 FXUS64 KFWD 231938 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 238 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1159 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ /This Afternoon Through Tonight/ Thunderstorms are ongoing across Central Texas late this morning in an area of high instability and rich moisture. The storms are being aided by a subtle shortwave rotating through the region. We have seen a few low end severe storms this morning and it does look like daytime heating is helping intensify the storms currently. This trend will likely continue through the afternoon. The unknown is how far north convection will develop since this broken complex of storms may rob North Texas of the best moisture and instability and result in weak subsidence on the northern periphery. Many of the CAMs including the HRRR, have picked up on this but there is still a chance that northward moving outflow boundaries and afternoon heating could produce scattered storms across North Texas. Therefore, we will keep chance PoPs through the afternoon for nearly all zones. Any storms that do develop this afternoon have a potential to produce hail and gusty winds. There is a lesser tornado threat than yesterday, but still non- zero. Ample moisture will also keep the threat for flooding elevated, especially in locations that saw heavy rainfall yesterday so we will keep the Flood Watch in place. Storms will exit the region to the northeast during the evening with passing shortwave energy and the loss of surface heating. One thing that has been interesting this morning is strong and gusty winds far removed from the convection, likely a result of a wake low. We have actually seen some 40+ mph winds and minor damage in a few spots. Outside of the storms, it will be partly to mostly cloudy, very warm and humid through tonight with highs in the 80s and lows in the 70s. 79 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Friday through Thursday/ The weather pattern will remain active as we head into the weekend with low level moisture staying in place and multiple shortwaves moving though southwest flow aloft. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Friday along and ahead of a cold front and dryline. The best storm chances will be during the late afternoon and early evening, mainly east of the I-35 corridor. A cap of warm air will limit/prevent storms from developing, but if the cap breaks, storm could become strong to severe quickly, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The loss of surface heating and the passage of the shortwave will end storm chances Friday evening. Saturday morning should start out rain-free but another shortwave will emerge out of West Texas in the afternoon while a dryline approaches from the west. The best storm chances will be from the Red River northward where the cap is most likely to break, but there is at least a low potential for storms across most of North Texas. Any storm that manages to develop will have potential to become severe. Storms will shift eastward with the passing shortwave Saturday night. Sunday should be rain-free with no discernible source of lift on either the synoptic or mesoscale. The passage of a shortwave across the Northern and Central Plains Sunday night will send a cold front southward through the region on Memorial Day. We don`t anticipate any storms with the front since moisture will be very limited above 850 mb. However, there may be just enough moisture across Central Texas for a few thunderstorms Monday evening. The front will bring a temporary end to the oppressive humidity, with dew points falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s by Tuesday morning. The front will lift slowly back to the north Tuesday night through Wednesday, resulting in low level moisture return and a return of thunderstorm chances. Storm chances will increase Wednesday night through Thursday with the passage of a shortwave. High temperatures Friday through Sunday will be generally in the 90s and low temperatures will be in the upper 60s and 70s. High temperatures Memorial Day through Thursday will be slightly cooler with mainly 80s and lower 90s. Lows will finally fall below the 70s for most locations the first half of next week. 79 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1159 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ The main aviation weather concern with this TAF package will be thunderstorm placement and timing. A broken complex of storms will continue to impact Waco though mid-afternoon and possibly beyond. Storms will be less certain across the Metroplex TAF sites since the Central Texas complex is currently producing some weak subsidence on the north side and disrupting the influx of moisture. We could still see some storms in the vicinity of the Metroplex TAF sites during peak heating (20Z - 00Z) but coverage should be limited. All storms will dissipate or move northeast of the region during the evening, leaving the overnight period rain- free. Low ceilings will continue to scatter across D10 through the afternoon, leaving scattered to broken Cu above 3000 ft and plenty of high clouds. VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the evening with MVFR to IFR stratus returning overnight/Friday morning. A south wind will prevail between 10 and 16 knots along with some gusts just above 20 knots. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 73 93 72 92 / 40 30 20 10 5 Waco 86 73 91 72 92 / 60 30 20 20 5 Paris 84 69 88 69 88 / 50 50 20 30 5 Denton 85 70 93 69 91 / 40 30 20 5 5 McKinney 85 71 90 70 89 / 40 40 20 10 5 Dallas 88 72 93 72 92 / 40 30 20 10 5 Terrell 86 71 90 71 89 / 50 40 20 20 0 Corsicana 88 74 92 73 92 / 50 30 20 20 0 Temple 89 74 92 72 93 / 60 10 20 10 5 Mineral Wells 86 71 93 69 93 / 50 20 10 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ092>095-102>107-117>123- 130>135-141>148-156>161. && $$