Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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735 FXUS64 KFWD 290057 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 757 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Wednesday Afternoon/ A brief lull in activity is underway across North and Central Texas after busy 24 hours. Enjoy this peaceful weather as this will once again be changing in the coming hours. Another shortwave is inching its way closer to our region with clusters of thunderstorms currently spanning from southeastern Colorado through central Coahuila MX. These clusters are now gradually making their way east and should arrive within our area in the next few hours. There remains some uncertainty in the eastward extent each cluster of thunderstorms will reach as we have not fully recovered from today`s rounds of thunderstorms. The storms currently near Childress are moving into a more stable environment that lacks appreciable low-level moisture. The expectation is that these storms continue moving eastward and should remain sub-severe. Can`t rule out some small hail and gusty winds. The other cluster of storms is currently across northern Oklahoma and will begin taking southeastward dive in the next few hours. Depending on the evolution of the complex before it, the second will also provide another opportunity for thunderstorms closer to sunrise tomorrow morning. The morning round of thunderstorms may have a bit more instability to work with as the main shortwave moves overhead with slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates in place. Comparing tomorrow`s environment with what we experienced this morning, the atmosphere will have about half the instability to work with leading up to sunrise tomorrow. Additionally, shear parameters are likely to remain much lower compared to this morning. A repeat of of this morning is not expected, however, a stormy morning rush hour will be possible if the storms in the Panhandle congeal into an MCS and survive the 300 mile trip. Tomorrow`s forecast remains a bit tricky given the uncertainties tonight. With northwesterly flow aloft and additional disturbances moving overhead, there will be continued rain chances through much of the day. Although the severe weather potential is expected to be low, lapse rates will continue to remain fairly steep, therefore, a strong to isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out tomorrow. All storms are expected to remain elevated keeping the main threats to small hail and gusty winds. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 221 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ /Wednesday Night through Tuesday/ Unsettled weather will continue across North and Central Texas through the weekend with multiple chances for thunderstorms and severe weather. It does appear that a building ridge aloft early next week will decease storm chances. Subtle mid-level ridging Wednesday night should limit storm chances overall. However, lingering moisture and the potential for random outflow boundaries across the region warrant at least some low chance PoPs. Thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday through Friday with subtle shortwave energy moving through nearly zonal flow aloft. The best storm chances will likely be overnight Thursday/Friday morning when the steering flow becomes a bit more northwesterly, allowing a storm complex to move southeast out of Oklahoma. Storms should push into South Texas Friday evening while a subtle ridge builds in from the west. The ridge will briefly become centered over the region Saturday, resulting in decreasing storm chances and slightly warmer temperatures. Unfortunately, the "quieter" weather will not last long with a good potential for West Texas dryline storms to organize and march eastward Saturday night/Sunday morning due to yet another shortwave moving in on the heels of the departing ridge. The potential for severe weather will exist with wind and hail being the most likely hazards. It is difficult to say how active Sunday afternoon will be but the most likely scenario is that subsidence will be left in the wake of the departing storms, limiting afternoon/evening storm formation. It does appear the pattern will attempt to change early next week with a higher amplitude ridge building from the Desert Southwest to the Central Plains. This pattern will temporarily increase northwest flow aloft, which often carries afternoon storms from the Central High Plains into North Texas during the overnight and early morning hours. The most likely day/time for this to occur would be overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Temperatures Thursday through Sunday will be around or just below seasonal normals with highs mainly in the 80s. The building ridge early next week will push temperatures into the 90s for most. A lack of any noteworthy cold fronts will keep a humid airmass in place through early next week. 79 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Concerns...TS impacts tonight, potentially lingering through tomorrow morning. MVFR arrives closer to sunrise through the late morning. A line of thunderstorms across western OK to the TX Panhandle continues moving east, knocking on the doorsteps of the UKW cornerpost. This line is expected to remain on an east to southeast trajectory, reaching the D10 airspace closer to 05Z. As long as this line holds together, expect an arrival time to the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex closer to 06Z and Waco around 07Z. This cluster will likely move east of the terminals within 2 hours of its arrival, leaving behind MVFR through the rest of the morning hours. Given some uncertainties in the evolution of this complex, there may be a secondary area of thunderstorms that may approach the I-35 corridor closer to sunrise. Given the low confidence of this occurring, the storm potential will be captured with a VCTS mention until higher confidence is reached. Beyond tomorrow morning, the probability of any one terminal experiencing storms in the afternoon remains too low to include in the TAF. This will continue to be monitored through the rest of the night and adjustments to the forecast will be made. Another round of low clouds is expected beyond 00Z Thursday, likely arriving at Waco first, then across North Texas. This has been included in the extended portion of the KDFW TAF. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 84 72 85 69 / 50 60 40 40 50 Waco 68 85 71 83 69 / 50 50 40 50 50 Paris 66 80 67 80 67 / 30 70 40 40 30 Denton 67 82 69 84 67 / 60 70 40 40 50 McKinney 67 82 70 83 69 / 50 70 40 40 40 Dallas 69 85 72 84 69 / 50 60 40 40 50 Terrell 67 83 70 84 69 / 40 60 40 40 40 Corsicana 69 85 72 85 71 / 40 60 40 50 40 Temple 68 85 71 85 69 / 50 50 30 40 40 Mineral Wells 67 82 70 86 68 / 60 60 40 40 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$