059
FXUS64 KFWD 231659
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1159 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon Through Tonight/

Thunderstorms are ongoing across Central Texas late this morning
in an area of high instability and rich moisture. The storms are
being aided by a subtle shortwave rotating through the region. We
have seen a few low end severe storms this morning and it does
look like daytime heating is helping intensify the storms
currently. This trend will likely continue through the afternoon.
The unknown is how far north convection will develop since this
broken complex of storms may rob North Texas of the best moisture
and instability and result in weak subsidence on the northern
periphery. Many of the CAMs including the HRRR, have picked up on
this but there is still a chance that northward moving outflow
boundaries and afternoon heating could produce scattered storms
across North Texas. Therefore, we will keep chance PoPs through
the afternoon for nearly all zones. Any storms that do develop
this afternoon have a potential to produce hail and gusty winds.
There is a lesser tornado threat than yesterday, but still non-
zero. Ample moisture will also keep the threat for flooding
elevated, especially in locations that saw heavy rainfall
yesterday so we will keep the Flood Watch in place. Storms will
exit the region to the northeast during the evening with passing
shortwave energy and the loss of surface heating.

One thing that has been interesting this morning is strong and
gusty winds far removed from the convection, likely a result of a
wake low. We have actually seen some 40+ mph winds and minor
damage in a few spots.

Outside of the storms, it will be partly to mostly cloudy, very
warm and humid through tonight with highs in the 80s and lows in
the 70s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 307 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/
/Friday Onward/

Zonal flow aloft will be in place on Friday while a shortwave in
the Central and Northern Pains helps advance the dryline east into
western portions of North and Central Texas. Conditions will be
exceptionally humid east of the dryline as dewpoints climb well
into the 70s. The resulting heat indices will be around 100
degrees by Friday afternoon as ambient temperatures climb into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Strong flow aloft (around 90kt at 250mb), 50+ knots of effective
shear, the presence of the dryline, and a highly unstable airmass
will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
late Friday afternoon and Friday evening. There will be a decent
cap in place, but it is likely that a few cells will overcome it
and quickly become severe. Wind profiles support supercell
development with large hail the primary concern. Damaging winds
and heavy rain/flooding may also occur, while high surface
dewpoints and low LCLs could very well support a tornado or two.
As far as timing and location: recent CAMs have focused on
convective initiation near or just west of the I-35 corridor
beginning around peak heating (~4 PM). Storms would then spread
east through and east of the I-35 corridor during the late
afternoon and early evening hours, eventually dissipating around
midnight Friday night.

Another oppressive day is in store for Saturday, with the dryline
having shifted farther west in response to a shortwave trough
lifting northeast through the Four Corners region. More
thunderstorm development is expected in the vicinity of the
dryline Saturday afternoon, with convective initiation likely
somewhere across the Big Country. A stronger cap will be in place
on Saturday, which will work against convective development, but a
few storms will likely break through and become severe late
afternoon into Saturday evening. The best storm chances will be
north of the I-20 corridor where the cap will be weakest. The
highest severe threat may end up along the Red River area, where
the better forcing will occur as the shortwave continues northeast
through the Central and Southern Plains.

A reprieve from the active weather can be expected on Sunday as
subsidence takes over in the wake of the departing shortwave. The
highest temperatures of the period will also occur Sunday
afternoon as highs range from the lower 90s near Paris to the
upper 90s in the western-most zones. SLightly lower dewpoints
should help offset the higher temperatures, hopefully keeping heat
index values just below 100.

A stronger shortwave trough will then swing through the Plains
Sunday night, pushing a cold front south through all of the region
in time for Memorial Day. Convection will be difficult to attain
due to the overnight passage of the front and the cap being
exceptionally strong. Will still include some low POPs across the
east where a few isolated storms may still occur. The front will
otherwise bring some relief in the form of drier air and more
seasonable temperatures for the first half of next week. The
dryline will eventually come into play again around Wednesday of
next week, when more thunderstorms will be possible as the next
upper level disturbance passes through. This will begin what
appears to be another active period for the second half of next
week and the final days of May.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

The main aviation weather concern with this TAF package will be
thunderstorm placement and timing. A broken complex of storms
will continue to impact Waco though mid-afternoon and possibly
beyond. Storms will be less certain across the Metroplex TAF
sites since the Central Texas complex is currently producing some
weak subsidence on the north side and disrupting the influx of
moisture. We could still see some storms in the vicinity of the
Metroplex TAF sites during peak heating (20Z - 00Z) but coverage
should be limited. All storms will dissipate or move northeast of
the region during the evening, leaving the overnight period rain-
free.

Low ceilings will continue to scatter across D10 through the
afternoon, leaving scattered to broken Cu above 3000 ft and
plenty of high clouds. VFR conditions will prevail at all
terminals through the evening with MVFR to IFR stratus returning
overnight/Friday morning.

A south wind will prevail between 10 and 16 knots along with some
gusts just above 20 knots.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  74  93  73  92 /  50  30  20  20  20
Waco                87  73  91  73  92 /  50  20  20  30   5
Paris               84  69  88  69  88 /  50  50  20  30  10
Denton              85  72  93  71  90 /  50  30  20  20  20
McKinney            85  72  90  72  89 /  50  40  20  30  20
Dallas              88  73  93  73  91 /  50  30  20  30  10
Terrell             86  72  90  72  89 /  40  40  20  30   5
Corsicana           88  74  92  74  92 /  50  30  20  30   5
Temple              89  74  92  73  93 /  40  10  20  30   5
Mineral Wells       86  73  93  70  93 /  50  10  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ092>095-102>107-117>123-
130>135-141>148-156>161.

&&

$$