Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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528 FXUS64 KFWD 171728 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1228 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Saturday/ We are monitoring two areas for potential isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. The first is across portions of western North Texas near the axis of an eastward-progressing mid- level trough. A couple of weak radar echoes can already be observed northwest of Throckmorton, TX. The second location is north of I-20 primarily near/along the Red River where surface low pressure in south-central Oklahoma is leading to a dense cumulus field. With subtle ascent from these features and some help from daytime heating, a lack of focusable surface boundaries will keep storm coverage rather isolated (15-25% chance north of I-20). It is entirely possible that much of this afternoon`s activity remains north of the Red River in Oklahoma, but recent CAM guidance does highlight the potential for a storm or two in our forecast area. Although we will have ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the areas of interest this afternoon, only 20-25 kts of 0-6km shear should keep the severe threat on the lower end. However, we cannot rule out some hail or gusty winds IF a thunderstorm develops. Again, it is uncertain if we will have enough lift for a parcel to achieve its LFC here in our forecast area. Decaying showers and thunderstorms over the Hill Country may make a run for our far southwestern zones later this evening/early overnight (10% chance), however it is much more likely they dissipate before reaching our forecast area. As we move into the overnight, expect clearing skies with temperatures lowering into the low to mid-60s by early Saturday morning. There is potential for some patchy fog across our eastern-southeastern zones early Saturday morning as well. Ridging aloft will begin to develop overhead Saturday beginning a much- needed several day reprieve from rain chances. South-southwesterly low-level flow and plentiful sunshine will allow for temperatures to peak in the mid-80s to low 90s Saturday afternoon. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /Issued 359 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024/ /This Weekend Through Next Week/ After our period of unsettled weather, a rain-free interlude will begin this weekend with temperatures and humidity steadily increasing into early next week. A cold front may approach during the middle of the upcoming week, increasing cloud cover and reintroducing rain chances, but seasonally warm temperatures will prevail. The storm system that doused the region yesterday will finally pass east of our meridian Friday night, being replaced by ridging aloft. Positive mid-level height anomalies will prevail into next week, pushing daytime temperatures into the 90s. Combined with rich Gulf moisture, this weekend will remind us that the Texas summer is right around the corner. The heat and humidity will culminate on Tuesday when heat index values will top 100 in many locations. The rather strong early-season subtropical ridging over Mexico that will nose into the Lone Star State will keep the spring storm tracks to our north. However, a midweek shortwave emerging from the Rockies and transiting the Central Plains will manage to deamplify the ridge a bit, potentially sending a cold front in our direction. There is little agreement as to how far equatorward the boundary will penetrate, the eventual evolution perhaps governed by its associated convection. In any event, its proximity should by sufficient to return rain/storm chances to the forecast. However, the current forecast will maintain the plurality of southerly winds and seasonally warm temperatures throughout the upcoming workweek. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all TAF sites. FEW to SCT 025-030 cigs will likely persist through this afternoon. Expect light west-northwesterly winds through this afternoon shifting south-southwest later this evening, becoming variable at times during the overnight. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of North Texas this afternoon, however the bulk of this activity is expected to remain near the Red River and north of the D10 sites. Patchy fog will be possible across portions of east and southeast TX early Saturday morning, but should largely remain displaced from KACT and the D10 sites. Langfeld && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 67 92 70 92 / 10 10 0 0 0 Waco 82 66 88 69 90 / 5 5 0 0 0 Paris 81 63 87 65 90 / 20 20 5 0 0 Denton 81 63 91 68 92 / 20 5 0 0 0 McKinney 81 64 89 68 90 / 20 10 0 0 0 Dallas 85 67 92 70 93 / 10 10 0 0 0 Terrell 82 64 88 67 90 / 10 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 82 67 90 70 92 / 5 5 0 0 0 Temple 82 64 89 68 90 / 5 10 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 81 63 91 68 92 / 10 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$