805
FXUS64 KFWD 030103
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
803 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening through Saturday Morning/

A fairly uneventful afternoon has ended, and dryline convection
has started in full swing to our west. The storms currently
ongoing as of 8 PM are fairly slow moving, and do not look to
enter our western Big Country counties until closer to 9 PM. While
CAM guidance over the afternoon has been fairly off-kilter in
regards to storm initiation, the 23Z HRRR finally has a good
handle on it. Over the rest of the evening, expect scattered
storms to form off the dryline and move east, eventually moving
into areas near and west of US-281. Forecast parameter space shows
this environment has the lapse rates, shear, and instability
present for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is
on the lower side due to overall unfavorable low-level shear
magnitude, but we cannot rule out an isolated tornado as these
storms continue into our area tonight.

Further north in Oklahoma, a weak front will continue to advance
southward, moving through North Texas overnight. Additional
chances for showers and storms are expected mainly across our
eastern counties, with the bulk of the activity likely further
into Arkansas. The front will wash out as surface winds across the
region shift east. Expect not much change for the sensible
weather, with little in the way of cold advection. Overnight
temperatures will be isolated by nocturnal stratus, bottoming out
once again in the 60s.

NAMNest and HRRR guidance continue to highlight a cluster of
showers and storms over southeast Central Texas late in the
morning. With our southeastern counties having already experienced
pretty considerable flash flooding, the re-aggravation of prior
flooding will need to be watched through tomorrow afternoon. This
will be especially true for Limestone, Freestone, and Leon
counties, where up to around 5-7" of rain has fallen in the last
several days.

By tomorrow afternoon, south-southeast flow will have been re-
established across the region, aiding in the potential for warm
advection showers and storms. The location of these storms will be
highly dependent on where lingering outflows set up tonight, so
have blanketed the region in at least isolated storm chances.
Later in the afternoon, dryline convection is once again expected
to our west, moving east like the days before. Potential for
severe-caliber hail and winds is expected with any stronger storm,
while the tornado threat remains on the lower side due to
unfavorable low level wind profiles. Current longer-range CAMs
have really backed off on any established linear lines/clusters
moving through. The HRRR remains the more pessimistic model, with
clusters moving towards I-35 tomorrow night, and weakening as they
move into East Texas. With how well the CAMs have been resolving
the actual event lately, this will be a wait-and-see game once
they initiate tomorrow.

Going into Saturday morning, expect another warm night in the 60s
with cloudy morning skies.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 216 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024/
/Friday Night and Beyond/

Scattered thunderstorm development is likely along the dryline
west of our forecast area late Friday afternoon. Initial activity
will likely take on more discrete/semi-discrete supercellular
structures capable of producing all storm hazards. It is a bit
uncertain how far east this convection maintains into our area,
but a majority of the CAM guidance keeps at least a low end severe
weather threat along/west of Highway 281 late Friday evening
lessening in intensity as this cluster/broken line of
thunderstorms approaches the I-35 corridor during the overnight.

The Thursday cold front will push back south toward North Texas
Saturday morning with most medium-range guidance suggesting the
frontal boundary will stall somewhere north of I-20 by Saturday
afternoon. This boundary will provide a source of lift for
scattered shower and thunderstorm development in a continually
moisture-rich environment during the day Saturday. With the front
acting as a focal point for thunderstorm development, the greater
rain chances (50-60%) will settle generally along/north of I-20
Saturday.

Confidence is increasing in a more widespread, impactful rainfall
event Saturday night into Sunday as guidance continues to suggest
a potent, compact mid-level shortwave will shift over this
stalled frontal boundary. Deep moisture and more than sufficient
instability will likely allow for thunderstorm development near
the triple point located in West Texas late Saturday
afternoon/evening. An increasing 30-40 kt low-level jet will
provide the needed warm/moist advection to maintain this activity
into our forecast area Saturday night and may lead to additional
development ahead of this complex across North and Central Texas.
The primary threats will be heavy rainfall, large hail, and
damaging winds. However, backed surface winds, low LCLs, and some
low-level curvature in forecast hodographs highlight at least a
low end potential for tornadoes as well, especially west of I-35
as this activity enters our forecast area. Additional thunderstorm
development is possible Sunday afternoon but will be largely
dependent upon the position of frontal boundaries and any
lingering outflow boundaries.

Ensemble guidance continues to highlight another storm system
entering the Plains in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This could
bring chances for storms back to North Texas, however the best
synoptic-scale lift looks to remain north of our forecast area as
of now. By the middle of next week, low-level southwesterly flow
and a building upper-level ridge over the Gulf Coast region will
allow for afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid-80s to low
90s by the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week. Keep up with the
forecast over the next several days as we further refine the
details of this messy, mid-spring weather pattern!

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR and southerly winds will prevail through the rest of this
evening. MVFR cigs will surge northward late tonight, moving over
and ACT around 05Z and D10 closer to 09Z. A weak front will move
through D10 after midnight bringing a chance for surrounding
showers/storms and east/northeast winds around 5 kts. Conditions
will continue to deteriorate, with IFR cigs expected at ACT near
daybreak and slightly reduced visibilities at all sites due to
mist. There are lower chances for IFR cigs at D10, but are much
higher further south. Additionally, just after daybreak, there are
low probs for LIFR cigs at ACT, but are too low to include.
Tomorrow afternoon, ceilings will lift back to VFR closer to 22Z
with southeasterly winds returning.

There are chances for late morning and afternoon convection
tomorrow, but location is highly dependent on where leftover
outflow boundaries and the weak front ends up. Model guidance
continues to be in misalignment, and with this uncertainty on
location, have refrained from a prevailing weather group at this
time. This will be refined in further TAF issuances.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  83  69  82  68 /  60  20  30  60  60
Waco                66  82  69  80  68 /  40  30  20  40  50
Paris               64  81  66  80  65 /  50  30  20  60  50
Denton              63  82  66  81  66 /  70  20  30  60  70
McKinney            65  81  66  80  68 /  60  20  30  60  60
Dallas              67  83  69  82  68 /  60  20  20  60  60
Terrell             65  81  67  82  67 /  60  30  20  50  50
Corsicana           67  83  69  83  69 /  50  30  20  40  50
Temple              66  83  69  82  68 /  40  30  20  30  40
Mineral Wells       63  82  66  82  66 /  70  20  30  60  80

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$