582
FXUS64 KFWD 221058
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
558 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The cold front that will act as a focus for convective development
later today can currently be observed slowly pushing into southern
Oklahoma. As it sags south of the Red River, we could start to
see storms develop as soon as 11AM this morning across portions of
North Texas increasing in coverage as we move into the afternoon
and evening hours. The environment will support very large hail in
storms that remain more discrete. If thunderstorms congeal into
more of a cluster or line of storms, damaging wind gusts will
become the primary hazard. The tornado threat is low, but it could
increase somewhat later this afternoon into this evening when
surface winds become more backed.

A Flood Watch is now in effect for much of North and Central Texas
starting at 10AM through Thursday evening. Widespread rainfall
totals of 1-3 inches are expected in the watch area with locally
higher amounts of 4-5 inches. If you encounter flooded roadways,
TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN!

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday Night/

Isolated convection from earlier this evening has now dissipated
allowing for a remaining quiet and humid overnight. Another round
of low-level stratus will surge northward later tonight
overspreading much of Central Texas and portions of North Texas
before sunrise Wednesday morning.

Active weather is expected to begin by late Wednesday morning into
Wednesday night across much of the region. Shortwave impulses in
the southwest flow aloft will aid in the development of multiple
rounds of thunderstorms along a couple surface features. A cold
front currently pushing into northern Oklahoma will approach our
Red River counties by 9-11am Wednesday morning. Southward
propagating convection will likely already be ongoing along this
frontal boundary as it enters our forecast area. The front will
interact with an extremely moist and unstable airmass as it slowly
sags south of the Red River by midday Wednesday. Long, straight
hodographs will favor clusters of supercells along and behind this
frontal boundary with primarily a very large hail threat. As we
move into Wednesday afternoon, daytime heating ahead of the front
will likely allow for the development of more scattered
thunderstorms. Another area of potential convective initiation
later in the day will reside near the cold front/dryline
intersection in the San Angelo area where recent CAM guidance is
highlighting thunderstorm development. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts will the be the primary hazards with any storms south
of the frontal boundary. If the front stalls or slows somewhere
across North Texas, boundary interactions and locally backed
surface flow will increase effective SRH and subsequently the
tornado threat. However, if storm interactions lead to rather
substantial cold pool development and outflow reinforces the
southward progression of the frontal boundary, we may see a
quicker transition to more of an MCS type situation with primarily
a damaging wind threat by Wednesday evening.

With plenty of elevated instability behind the outflow/frontal
boundary, isolated to scattered storms may continue to develop
across portions of North Texas into Wednesday evening and the
early overnight as the bulk of thunderstorm activity enters
Central and Southeast Texas. Impressive PWATs in the 1.9-2.1"
range highlight the potential for heavy rainfall Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Mean flow parallel to the frontal
boundary would also suggest a potential for training thunderstorms
increasing the threat for localized flash flooding across
portions of North and Central Texas. Regional models and high-
resolution CAMs are currently struggling to pinpoint where this
band or two of heavier rainfall may occur (highly dependent on the
location of the frontal boundary and any outflow boundaries).
However, the 00Z HREF highlights the greatest potential for
localized 4-5" totals generally south of an Eastland-Paris line
and north of a Lampasas-Palestine line. The localized nature of
this threat is keeping us from issuing a Flood Watch now, but we
will take a look at the suite of 06Z guidance later tonight to
reassess the need for and placement of a Flood Watch in the
morning forecast package.

The bulk of this activity should push east and southeast of our
forecast area by midnight Wednesday night. Additional chances for
storms will arrive on Thursday.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 307 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/
/Thursday Onward/

A meandering surface front and a dryline will provide focus for
thunderstorm development again on Thursday as a modest shortwave
trough passes overhead. Recent CAM guidance has indicated that
showers and storms may begin developing Thursday morning across
Central Texas as forcing for ascent strengthens in advance of the
disturbance, likely on the nose of a strong theta-e ridge. Morning
showers and storms would likely be elevated in nature, making hail
the main concern in any strong or severe storm. Convection would
then develop farther north in the vicinity of the aforementioned
surface boundaries as the atmosphere destabilizes Thursday
afternoon.

Models have been less aggressive with the Thursday convection
compared to previous suites, perhaps a result of the atmosphere
being worked over from Wednesday night storms or cloud cover
associated with the Thursday morning activity. In addition, a
persistent capping inversion around 850mb may also be a mitigating
factor. Will keep POPs in the chance to slight chance category
for now, with the best chances across Central Texas in the morning
and North Texas in the afternoon. Any storm which forms
(particularly in the afternoon and evening) could become severe
with large hail and damaging winds; and locally heavy rain may
also occur.

Precipitation will come to an end Thursday night, followed by hot
and humid weather on Friday as the front lifts well north of the
region. A strong shortwave in the Plains will drag the dryline
east to near the I-35 corridor, which may serve as a focus for
isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Storm
coverage would likely remain low, but a highly unstable airmass
and strong flow aloft would allow any storm which forms to once
again become severe. The dryline will remain the main focus for
development on Saturday afternoon and evening as a stronger
shortwave crosses the Southern Plains. A strong cap will be in
place, but a few cells will likely break through it and quickly
become severe. The best chances for storms on Saturday appears at
this time to be along and north of I-20, and in the afternoon and
evening hours.

A lull in storm chances is then expected on Sunday as subsidence
briefly dominates in the wake of the Saturday system. It will
remain quite warm with highs ranging from the low 90s in the
northeast to the upper 90s across the west. Sunday may end up
being the warmest day temperature-wise, but lower dewpoints will
be in place compared to Friday and Saturday (when heat indices
will reach 100+ across most of the CWA).

The next upper level system will drop southeast from Nebraska into
Arkansas/Missouri Sunday night and Monday, dragging a cold front
south through the entire region. Weak forcing will keep storm
chances fairly low and limited to the eastern half of the region.
Otherwise, cooler air will arrive on Memorial Day with the cold
front, bringing near-normal temperatures to North and Central
Texas Monday night through the midweek period of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Intermittent MVFR cigs will persist through at least 14Z-15Z this
morning at all terminals before lifting to VFR status.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move into the vicinity
of the D10 airspace after 17Z with the greatest potential for
terminal impacts taking place in between 19Z-23Z this afternoon.
Impacts for KACT will begin a few hours later. Gusty outflow
winds, hail, and heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards with
these storms. Surface winds may turn east-northeasterly for a few
hours at the D10 terminals behind the outflow. Otherwise,
predominately southerly flow at 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts at
times is expected.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  73  86  75  94 /  60  50  40  20   5
Waco                90  73  87  75  91 /  40  50  30  10  20
Paris               83  68  83  71  89 /  80  60  50  50   5
Denton              85  70  85  75  92 /  70  50  50  10   5
McKinney            87  70  85  74  91 /  60  50  50  20   5
Dallas              90  73  87  75  94 /  60  50  40  20   5
Terrell             88  70  86  73  91 /  60  50  40  20   5
Corsicana           88  73  89  76  93 /  40  50  30  20  10
Temple              90  74  90  75  92 /  30  40  30  10  20
Mineral Wells       86  70  87  75  93 /  60  40  30   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through late Thursday
night for TXZ092>095-102>107-117>123-130>135-141>148-156>161.

&&

$$