265
FXUS64 KFWD 011718
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Sunday Night/

Satellite imagery shows a well defined MCV left over from
overnight convection tracking across North Texas at this time.
Scattered thunderstorms have increased in coverage over the last
hour in response to weak ascent and increased low level moisture
convergence near this feature, mainly north of I-20. A few of
these storms may become strong, but limited instability and
generally weak wind profiles should inhibit larger scale storm
organization through the afternoon. Coverage of storms will
likely increase a bit during peak afternoon heating east of I-35
where low level moisture is a bit better and convergence increases
in the vicinity of a northward moving boundary. In all, the severe
threat is generally low, but we can`t rule out an isolated severe
wind/hail report through the afternoon.

As we get into the late evening hours, attention will again turn
back to the west where scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop across West Texas. It`s a bit uncertain as to whether or
not this activity will organize into any clusters/complex
overnight, but we`ll maintain some low PoPs mainly across our
western counties to account for any activity that manages to make
it.

We`ll be warm and humid on Sunday with a little better low level
flow and quite a bit more instability, however we`ll lack a
significant forcing mechanism for thunderstorm development outside
of localized mesoscale boundary interaction. One such boundary may
be from any remnant outflows that manage to push into North Texas
from overnight convection. Otherwise, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms would likely develop during peak afternoon heating
in a weakly capped environment. While wind fields will remain
generally weak, strong instability would support a little more
robust severe threat including higher probabilities for wind/hail.
We`ll keep PoPs at 20-30% to account for this activity.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024/
/Sunday Onward/

North and Central Texas will lie beneath the northern flank of a
mid level ridge (centered over Mexico) at the start of the period.
The resulting flow aloft will create a couple opportunities for
thunderstorms to start next week. The first of which will be late
Sunday as the ridge is somewhat compromised by a shortwave trough
passing through the Plains. An active afternoon and evening of
convection is expected from the Dakotas southward into the
Southern Plains, with North and Central Texas sitting on the
southern edge. It is likely that the dryline will provide a focus
for convective initiation over Northwest Texas Sunday afternoon,
with activity propagating east-southeast through our forecast area
Sunday evening. Storms will encounter a strengthening cap the
farther east they get, which should cause weakening as they move
through and east of the I-35 corridor. Until they weaken, a
damaging wind threat may exist primarily west of I-35.

A second shortwave will generate another round of storms Monday
afternoon and evening. The latest guidance places the higher
thunderstorm probabilities either along the Red River where the
stronger ascent will reside, or across Central Texas within an
axis of exceptionally high instability. Storms may end up being
isolated, but model soundings support supercellular structure
with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging winds with
any storm which may develop.

A slight pattern shift will occur on Tuesday as the ridge expands
north, bringing a return to northwest flow aloft. A deepening
upper trough across the Midwest and Ohio Valley will amplify the
pattern for the mid to late week period. It looks at this time
like the ridge will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday, shutting off
our rain chances for a day or two while providing our warmest
weather of the week. The north to northwest flow will eventually
usher in another weak cold front, which will likely cross the Red
River on Thursday and stall somewhere across North or Central
Texas. This boundary and additional disturbances in the flow aloft
will bring more chances for rain and storms late next week into
the following weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Storms approaching the airport now will move east early this
afternoon. Will likely continue the VCTS for a few hours with VFR
prevailing through the afternoon/evening. Variable wind direction
for a few hours early this afternoon ~5 kt will become more
southeasterly by late afternoon. There is some potential for MVFR
cigs during the early morning Sunday, but VFR should prevail
through the remainder of the period. Scattered thunderstorms can
again be expected on Sunday with coverage 20-30%. We`ll leave TS
out now given quite a bit of uncertainty in timing.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    88  73  89  74  90 /  40   5  30  20  20
Waco                88  72  88  74  90 /  30   5  30  20  20
Paris               86  68  88  72  86 /  50   0  30  20  40
Denton              88  71  88  72  90 /  50  10  30  20  20
McKinney            86  71  88  73  88 /  50   0  30  20  30
Dallas              89  72  89  74  90 /  40   5  30  20  30
Terrell             87  70  88  74  88 /  50   0  30  20  30
Corsicana           88  73  88  75  90 /  40  10  30  10  20
Temple              88  72  89  75  90 /  30  20  20  10  10
Mineral Wells       88  72  88  72  91 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$