Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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632 FXUS64 KFWD 261855 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 155 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Memorial Day/ Storms in Central Texas, which survived well beyond the traditional cessation of the nocturnal low-level jet, have finally exited our southeastern zones. Despite an approaching frontal boundary, strongly veered flow and reduced boundary layer moisture will mean we will finally have a storm-free afternoon. Although rich moisture will remain across Central and East Texas, the front will lose its forward momentum, and the region should remain well capped. CAMs have backed off on convection in East Texas, and the plurality of guidance keeps the radar scope empty. In areas of reduced humidity and full sun, temperatures will soar, aided by vigorous downsloping winds. Wind speeds will tend to diminish near peak heating as the boundary approaches, enhancing temperatures just ahead of it. DFW`s forecast high is 99F, which would match the record high for May 26, set previously in 1980. Rain-soaked areas may not get as warm, particularly those in the humid sector where there will also be daytime CU. The Heat Advisory will remain intact even though the reduced afternoon temperatures within it may prevent a few locations from reaching criteria. As the boundary experiences frontolysis overnight, wind speeds will diminish further. And with clear skies, patchy ground fog will likely develop within the humid air across Central and East Texas, particularly in those areas that have seen significant rainfall this weekend. This process may be accompanied by low clouds, both of which should effectively burn off Monday morning, and a bright sunny day will follow. Moisture will return to North Texas and the Big Country, but the highest heat index values will be within the Heat Advisory area. The enhanced boundary layer moisture and unseasonal easterly winds will reduce daytime temperatures from the previous day, but it will still be uncomfortably muggy Memorial Day with lighter winds. Those who are unaccustomed to spending time outdoors in the heat should take all necessary precautions: wear light, loose-fitting clothing and drink plenty of water. In addition, the UV will be intense, equivalent to a similar day in mid-July. 25 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 239 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ Update: The long-term discussion below remains on track. Expect low end rain chances to return across portions of Central Texas by Monday evening with more widespread daily chances for rain by the middle of next week. Severe weather and heavy rainfall will be possible at times, so make sure to keep updated with the forecast over the next several days. Langfeld Previous Discussion: /Memorial Day and Beyond/ By 00Z Monday (Sunday night), the cold front associated with the shortwave moving across the Central Plains will still be lagging well behind the associated surface low located near the Great Lakes. This front, extending from the Upper Midwest into North Texas, is projected to push south of the Red River early Monday morning. With mid-level ascent mostly displaced well to the northeast, forcing for ascent will generally be limited to the surface boundary(ies). 12Z guidance continues to favor a precipitation-free Memorial Day holiday (NBM PoPs < 10%), at least until after dark. By the Monday evening, isentropic lift over the shallow front in addition to ongoing warm air advection may lead to some chances for showers and a few elevated thunderstorms. We will also need to monitor any convection developing along the dryline, which will likely have retreated west towards the Edwards Plateau as moisture advection continues ahead of the boundary. We have maintained the low (20% or less) chance for showers and thunderstorms across Central Texas (generally south of I-20) after midnight. Consolidation of an expanding mid-level ridge over the Intermountain West and the subtropical high over Mexico combined with troughing over the Great Lakes and Appalachians will result in northwest flow aloft across the Plains. Ridge-topping perturbations/shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft in conjunction with the sharpening dryline to the west and lingering frontal boundary across Central Texas should provide sufficient forcing for daily rain/storm chances. This pattern will support rounds of thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain to our west and northwest during the afternoon and evening tracking south and east into North and Central Texas overnight and into the daytime hours. The first shortwave is currently progged to arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday with additional waves arriving nightly through the end of the week. Forecast soundings indicate the environment may support severe weather though the finer details including location and specific impacts will be difficult to define at this stage especially for later periods as the forecast will become increasingly affected by any remnant boundaries/outflows from previous convection. Given recent locally heavy rainfall and the potential for multiple additional rounds of showers and storms next week isolated flash and urban flooding impacts are also likely, especially over areas that recently received heavy rainfall. With regard to the recent bout of heat, as post-frontal dewpoints drop slightly (upper 50s/60s across North TX and low/mid 70s across Central TX) and temperatures peak in the low to mid 90s, heat indices on Monday should be well below Heat Advisory criteria for all but our southern row of counties. By Wednesday, with the aid of precipitation and increasingly cloudy skies, highs will generally be in the 80s region wide. The active pattern looks to keep this "cool down" in place through the end of the month. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Wind shifts, but otherwise VFR with no significant concerns. Potential for BR and IFR ceilings Monday morning at Waco. Breezy southwesterly winds will gradually subside as a weak frontal boundary approaches. Veering wind to the west and eventually northwest will occur late in the day across D10. Light northwest winds will veer further overnight to the northeast, eventually becoming easterly by midday Monday. While a shift to north flow will likely be required late this afternoon, Monday`s winds should be light enough to allow for either flow configuration. (The boundary is unlikely to make significant changes to the wind direction in Central Texas.) After nearly daily storm chances the past several days, no thunder impacts are expected until Monday evening at the earliest (which is currently beyond the scope of the TAFs). Clear skies will prevail across D10 with cirrus arriving late Monday. Daytime CU will occur at Waco. Waco may also experience a brief period of ground fog and/or IFR ceilings Monday morning, but both should remain south/east of the Metroplex (though they may encroach on D10). 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 72 95 72 90 / 10 0 0 10 30 Waco 93 71 94 72 90 / 50 0 5 20 30 Paris 94 67 92 66 87 / 20 5 5 10 20 Denton 97 67 93 68 89 / 10 0 0 10 30 McKinney 99 68 92 68 88 / 10 0 0 10 30 Dallas 99 72 95 72 91 / 20 0 5 10 30 Terrell 97 71 92 69 89 / 30 0 5 10 20 Corsicana 93 74 93 73 92 / 30 0 5 20 20 Temple 92 72 95 71 90 / 40 0 5 20 20 Mineral Wells 97 67 94 69 90 / 10 0 0 10 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ135-145>148-158>162- 174-175. && $$