Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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229 FXUS64 KFWD 031828 CCA AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 115 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tuesday Afternoon/ Another round of storms is now moving into North Texas, bringing a renewed threat for both severe weather and flash flooding. The airmass across North Texas remains quite moist, evident by the >75F dew points that are now approaching the I-20 corridor at this time. Couple the moist airmass with localized ascent due a southward surging cold pool and we`ll once again be talking about another round of storms moving southward through the region this afternoon. Precipitable water values continue to be at or slightly above the 90th percentile, meaning, these thunderstorms will continue to produce heavy rain. Antecedent soil conditions are likely to lead to quick runoff with renewed flooding possible. In addition to the southward surging line, additional storms will be possible east of I-35 and south of I-20 along a tight theta-e gradient. If storms can develop in this region, a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out through the afternoon. After the late afternoon system moves through, we`ll have to monitor any additional thunderstorm development across the TX Panhandle and western Oklahoma. There is guidance that suggests the dryline will set off a few storms and congeal them into a complex. Corfidi vectors suggest a southeastward moving complex may push across the region late this evening into tonight from the northwest. If these storms do occur, damaging winds, large hail and flash flooding will be the main hazards once again. Confidence in this line of storms remains low. For tomorrow, some relief from the rain is expected as weak ridging aloft likely keeps precipitation at bay. Unfortunately, this will mean the heat returns with highs in the mid to upper 90s. A few triple digit readings cannot be ruled out in western North Texas. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 409 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024/ /Tuesday through Next Weekend/ As advertised over the last several days, the heat will take the main headline through most of the period. But before we get a few rain-free days, there will be additional storm chances mainly Tuesday night and Wednesday. A disturbance in the mid-levels will send a surface front southward with scattered storms developing along the boundary. At this time, it appears they will impact our area between midnight and daybreak Wednesday generally along/east of I-35 to the northeast. Some of these storms could be strong to marginally severe, so continue to check back for updates. Afternoon rain chances will depend on what happens during the morning hours, but if there`s any leftover boundary nearby we could see additional development of storms. Still, coverage should be very limited given the forecast warm temperatures in the mid- levels. Temperature wise, expect highs in the low to mid 90s Tuesday and Wednesday with a few locations across the far western zones peaking the triple digit mark. The high humidity will result in heat indices in the 99-108 range. Make sure to stay safe in the heat by taking all the necessary precautions to avoid heat- related illnesses. Take frequent breaks from the sun and drink plenty of water! For the rest of the period, mid-level ridging will dominate the weather pattern. Daytime highs will be in the 90s each day with plenty of sunshine and light winds. While some of the extended models show another system approaching our area by Friday or Saturday, but the bulk of the guidance keep us dry through at least half of the weekend. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Concerns...Low ceilings, TSRA and wind shift late this afternoon. Low confidence in second round of storms overnight. The MVFR deck that spread across the region this morning is in the process of scattering out, evident by the speckling of MVFR/VFR across the region. This will likely improve to VFR as low-level mixing increases cloud heights. The improvements are likely to be temporary as a line of storms inches closer to the D10 airspace. VCTS has been shifted earlier to account for the approaching line of storms. TSRA is now advertised between 21-00Z where northerly winds appear likely. The northerly winds will linger for a few hours before southeasterly winds return to the area. A similar trend is expected at Waco closer to 00Z. Improvements are expected after 00Z as VFR returns to the region. This too, will be temporary as low-level moisture comes back and MVFR once again overspread the region. Confidence in an afternoon round of storms remains too low to include in the TAF, therefore, we`ll continue to monitor trends through the next several hours. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 74 93 76 92 / 50 20 5 20 10 Waco 89 72 92 75 91 / 30 30 5 10 10 Paris 84 69 87 73 87 / 60 30 20 30 20 Denton 88 72 93 74 91 / 50 20 5 20 10 McKinney 87 72 91 75 89 / 60 30 5 20 10 Dallas 90 72 93 76 92 / 50 20 5 20 10 Terrell 87 72 90 74 89 / 60 30 5 20 20 Corsicana 89 74 92 76 91 / 50 20 10 10 20 Temple 89 74 94 75 92 / 30 30 10 10 10 Mineral Wells 90 72 97 75 93 / 20 10 0 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$