935
FXUS64 KFWD 210550
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1250 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday Night/

The remainder of the night will feature dry and quiet conditions
as the overhead mid-level ridge exits to the east. Broad troughing
will dig over the western CONUS setting the stage for a few active
weather days during the midweek period. Increasing moisture along
southerly low-level flow will draw stratus northward over North
and Central Texas before sunrise Tuesday morning, lifting and
scattering by midday Tuesday. Expect warm and humid conditions
with temperatures starting in the mid-70s for the Tuesday morning
commute. By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will rise into the
upper 80s to low 90s across much of the region (potentially
mid-90s across the Big Country). Abundant moisture marked by
surface dewpoints in the low to mid-70s will produce heat index
values in the 95-100 degree range.

A conditional setup for isolated severe thunderstorms will exist
across our western zones late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. The greater synoptic-scale ascent will remain far
displaced to the north ahead of a mid-level shortwave passing over
northern Oklahoma/Kansas. However, daytime heating and surface
convergence along a dryline may offer enough support to get a few
isolated thunderstorms going along the dryline as the cap weakens
by 4-5pm Tuesday evening (~20% chance of this occurring). This
dryline will likely be positioned from Bowie-Jacksboro-Cisco
during the time of potential convective initiation. The
environment will support severe weather if thunderstorms do
develop with primarily a large hail and damaging wind threat. The
loss of daytime heating and increasing SBCIN will allow storms to
weaken as they shift east through the evening and early overnight,
likely dissipating as they approach the I-35/35W corridor.

The remainder of Tuesday night will feature warm, humid
conditions with another surge of low-level stratus ahead of a cold
front that will bring the potential for more widespread severe
weather Wednesday.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 245 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Another shortwave disturbance will move across the region in the
wake of a departing impulse on Wednesday, ushering a cold front
south through the region. The exact southward extent of the front
is still uncertain as ensemble guidance has the front just barely
making it into our northwestern counties, while the NAM has it
essentially bisecting our region before stalling as its upper
level support races off to the northeast. Nonetheless, lift from
the front will allow for showers and storms, some strong to
severe, near and along the boundary as it moves south through the
afternoon hours. While an overall lull in storms is expected
overnight into Thursday morning, low chances for isolated to
scattered showers/storms will remain mainly in our north and
western counties. Another increase in storm activity/coverage is
expected Thursday afternoon and evening as another shortwave moves
across the Southern Plains and urges the stalled boundary
northward as a warm front. Best chances for precipitation continue
to remain across North Texas both days.

Strong to severe storms will once again be possible across a
majority of the region as 60-70+ dewpoints are expected region wide
alongside abundant instability and shear. At this time, large
hail and damaging winds look to be the main concern. Additionally,
PWAT values in excess of 1.5" (and in some areas in excess of 2")
will promote efficient rainfall producers during midweek. The
flooding threat will likely ramp up during this time, especially
in those areas that are still saturated.

With a dryline ever-present to our west, multiple impulses within
the overall mid-level flow will promote on-and-off isolated to
scattered storm chances through the rest of next weekend.
Currently, the bigger forecast concern for next weekend will be
the combination of heat and humidity on outdoor conditions. The
presence of the frontal boundary and rain chances will help to
keep temperatures slightly lower midweek, but temperatures will
rise back into the upper 80s to mid 90s by Friday. These
unseasonably warm temperatures, combined with humid 60-70 degree
dewpoints, will promote increased afternoon heat index values in
the mid 90s to around 105 Friday through Sunday. Caution will
need to be taken with regard to outdoor activities during the heat
of the day this next weekend.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

MVFR stratus around 1200-1500ft will overspread much of North and
Central Texas later tonight, reaching KACT by ~08Z and the D10
terminals by ~10Z. There is a less than 20% chance that IFR
conditions (cigs ~800-900ft) may briefly be realized early
Tuesday morning at KACT and other Central Texas terminals, so we
opted to keep it out of the 06Z issuance. Cigs should gradually
lift through the morning, becoming VFR by 16Z-17Z for much of the
region. South flow at 12-16 kts with occasional gusts to 20-25kts
is expected tomorrow.

There is a low chance that a few isolated thunderstorms may
develop along a dryline west of the D10 terminals between 21Z-23Z
Tuesday afternoon/evening. If storms do develop, they would move
east toward the I-35 corridor in the 00Z-02Z timeframe. However,
it is likely that these thunderstorms, if they are to develop,
will weaken/dissipate before approaching I-35/35W. A conditional
setup for thunderstorms to develop, isolated coverage, and the
potential for storms to dissipate before impacting our terminals
will keep us from adding VCTS to the TAF at this moment. However,
we will continue to monitor, especially for potential impacts to
the UKW and JEN cornerposts.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  89  76  89  71 /   0   5  10  40  50
Waco                74  89  76  89  74 /   0   0   5  20  20
Paris               69  86  75  86  68 /   0   5  10  50  60
Denton              74  88  73  88  68 /   0  10  20  50  50
McKinney            74  86  75  88  69 /   0   5  10  40  50
Dallas              75  89  76  90  71 /   0   5  10  40  40
Terrell             72  87  75  88  71 /   0   5  10  30  40
Corsicana           74  89  76  90  74 /   0   0   5  20  20
Temple              74  89  75  89  73 /   0   0   5  20  20
Mineral Wells       73  90  73  88  69 /   0  10  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$