516
FXUS65 KGGW 082114
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
314 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
- A stalled low pressure system, combined with weak disturbances
  in the NW flow pattern will dictate our sensible weather in
  Northeast Montana now through Sunday. Then, a decent chance of
  rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will arrive from the
  southwest, early on Monday.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through this weekend.

- A general warming trend to above-normal temperatures are
  expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
The stalled low pressure center of circulation is apparent in the
satellite imagery over central Saskatchewan and its associated low
pressure trough axis is spread from northwest to southeast. We are
located southwest of that axis. The general NBM forecast trend is
heading toward a cooler solution through Sunday afternoon, with
hi-res models showing chances for sneaky isolated rain showers
here and there. The hi-res models are proving valuable as they
seem to be the only ones capturing today`s precipitation for our
northern zones.

By Sunday afternoon, the stalled trough actually (strangely) retreats
toward the northwest, allowing for more influence from the Pacific
to be directed our way. By Sunday night, the flow turns more from
the southwest ahead of a moderately strong low pressure trough
over the Rocky Mountains. This is expected to bring good chances
for accumulating rain showers along with isolated thunderstorms,
for many locations, especially from late Sunday night through
Monday. There is a 50 percent probability of a quarter inch of
rain and a 30 percent probability of a half inch rain for most of
NE Montana late Sunday night through Monday at this time.

Tuesday onward: Northeast Montana will be on the northern fringes
of upper-level ridge influence as models come back into alignment
for the region. This results in a general warming trend to above
normal high temperatures by mid week. Waves on the periphery of
the ridge could bring low chances for showers at times.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS:
Even though NBM ensembles have recently struggle to resolve this
Saskatchewan low pressure trough, slow improvements are showing
trends toward lower than average temperatures for today, Sunday
and Monday. Have relied on a blend with hi-resolution models,
which have been more accurate with winds and precip
probabilities.

Forecast confidence is increasing on the chances for rain Sunday
night and Monday now that there is better model agreement.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATE: 2115Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Mid-level clouds will be over the area today with
sprinkles possible for KGGW and KOLF. This may generate some
unexpected gusty winds from time to time. A cold front this
evening bring a break in the clouds and more mid level clouds will
move in late tonight.

WIND: From the north at 10 to 15 mph. Then from the northeast
overnight and from the east on Sunday. Gusty and erratic winds
may occur in the vicinity of rain showers.



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow