054
FXUS65 KGGW 080827
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
227 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
- A stalled low pressure system over Saskatchewan will dictate our
  sensible weather in Northeast Montana now through Sunday. Then,
  a decent chance of rain showers will arrive early on Monday.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through this weekend.

- Weak waves in the NW flow aloft to the south of the upper low
  could bring some isolated showers to the NE half of the area
  today.

- A general warming trend to above-normal temperatures are
  expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
The stalled low pressure center of circulation is apparent in the
satellite imagery over central Saskatchewan and its associated low
pressure trough axis is spread from northwest to southeast. We are
located southwest of that axis. The general NBM forecast trend is
heading toward a cooler solution through Sunday afternoon, with
hi-res models showing chances for sneaky isolated rain showers
here and there. With some radar echoes over Blaine and Phillips
Counties at 08Z, and weak waves in the NW flow aloft today ahead
of a cold front this evening, will mention isolated showers in
the NE half of the forecast area today.

Tonight and Sunday will be mainly dry and cool with surface high
pressure over the region.

Once the stalled trough finally moves east of our region, the flow
aloft quickly turns more from the southwest and a more progressive
low pressure trough from the Rocky Mountains brings better chances
for accumulating rain showers along with isolated thunderstorms,
especially from late Sunday night through Monday for our central
and eastern zones. There is a 50 percent probability of a quarter
inch of rain and a 30 percent probability of a half inch rain for
most of NE Montana late Sunday night through Monday at this time.

Tuesday onward: Northeast Montana will be on the northern fringes
of upper-level ridge influence as models come back into alignment
for the region. This results in a general warming trend to above
normal high temperatures by mid week. Waves on the periphery of
the ridge could bring low chances for showers at times.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS:
Even though NBM ensembles have recently struggle to resolve this
Saskatchewan low pressure trough, slow improvements are showing
trends toward lower than average temperatures for today, Sunday
and Monday. A ridge of high pressure ahead (east) of the stalled
trough is forcing the cold pool to backslide south and west into
Montana today where it bumps up against the newly developing ridge
over the western half of the CONUS. Forecast confidence is
increasing on the chances for rain Sunday night and Monday now
that there is better model agreement.

For today, I was more generous than the NBM with the isolated
showers.



&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATE: 0830Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Mid-level clouds will be over the area today with
isolated showers possible. A few showers may generate gusty and
erratic winds in their respective vicinity. A cold front this
evening bring a break in the clouds and more mid level clouds will
move in late tonight.

WIND: Becoming light and variable early this morning becoming NW
5 to 10 knots by late morning. Winds will become north 5 to 15
knots this evening and NNE late tonight. Gusty and erratic winds
may occur in the vicinity of rain showers.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow