877
FXUS65 KGGW 122234
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
434 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Gusty west winds will diminish this evening.

2) Warm and dry weather will continue over the next few days,
especially Friday and Saturday.

3) Expect increasing chances for thunderstorms for the weekend
with widespread wetter conditions possible early next week..


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Fast zonal flow looks to continue for the next few days before
building into a ridge Friday and Saturday. This will lead to an
ultimate warming trend in temperatures, with increasing chances
for thunderstorms as the ridge axis slides to the east by Friday
into the weekend.

Ensembles are pointing toward more widespread wetting rains by
early next week. The NBM now has a 12 hour probability for at
least a tenth of an inch of rainfall around 50 percent by this
timeframe.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS:

Given the post-frontal environment, the forecast was trended above
the NBM for winds on through this evening with confidence
remaining high on winds continuing for several more hours. Fire
weather concerns will also be on the increase, with the gusty
winds and dropping humidity behind the front. Fuel conditions and
low to moderate fire danger will keep the fire concerns in check
for the most part. Confidence is high that thunderstorms increase
in coverage late this week into the weekend with wetting rains
early next week, but moderate on precise placement given mesoscale
details to work out.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATE: 2200Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR

DISCUSSION: Clear to partly cloudy skies through the cycle.

SFC WIND: NW at 20 to 25 gust 35 kts through this afternoon.
Veering N and calming to less than 10 kts after sunset through
tonight. Then backing to the NW after sunrise and increasing to 10
to 15 gust 25 kts Thursday afternoon.

EQUIPMENT: Long term METARs are missing for KSDY, thus AMD NOT
SKED. COMMs outage since 14Z Wednesday across northeast Montana
has removed METARs for other terminals as well.

GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow