785
FXUS65 KGGW 100918
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
318 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Numerous rain showers and isolated strong thunderstorms will
  linger into the early evening, especially near the ND border.

- With elevated wind speeds and gusts with the passing cold front,
  a Lake Wind Advisory is out through 9 PM this evening.

- A general warming trend to above-normal temperatures is expected
  through the remainder of the forecast period.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A shortwave trough and associated cold front are making their way
through eastern Montana and a convergence zone of low-level
moisture is lending to an expansion of rain shower coverage this
morning. Isolated strong thunderstorms with wind the primary
threat are expected in the afternoon and early evening hours with
some clearing skies and instability after the frontal passage. For
rainfall amounts that will be variable with thunderstorms, there
remains moderate to high (40 to 70 percent) confidence of at least
a quarter of an inch north of the Milk River and near the North
Dakota border through this evening.

Another shortwave trough will move through overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, but little to no rainfall accumulation is
expected given much drier air in place by then.

Shortwave ridging will build in for Wednesday through early
Friday ahead of the next disturbance, bringing seasonably warm and
dry weather. Much of the GFS ensemble is hinting at a shortwave
trough moving through the region late Friday, but the ECMWF is not
hinting at notable shortwave trough moving through at all then.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS:
There is moderate to high confidence in rainfall amounts and high
confidence in timing of showers and thunderstorms today. There is
low to moderate confidence in fire weather conditions occurring
particularly for the southwest portion of the CWA on Wednesday.
Low confidence exists for the timing, location and simply the
existence of any thunderstorms over the area Friday night and
beyond.

-Zanker/Stoinskers

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATE: 0830Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR

DISCUSSION: There is high (90 percent) confidence for numerous showers
and thunderstorms progressing east across the area through 21Z,
with isolated thunderstorms afterward until around 02Z. The more
widespread rain this morning will come along with a period of MVFR
ceilings and visibility, mainly between 14-19Z. Low (20 percent)
confidence exists for brief reductions to IFR at any of the TAF
sites.

WIND: Southeast around 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots, becoming
west at 15 to 20 knots after 16Z. Gusty and erratic winds may
occur in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

EQUIPMENT: The METAR for KSDY is missing, thus AMD NOT SKED.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow