546
FXUS65 KGGW 240844
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
244 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Scattered showers and general thunderstorms this afternoon
with a small (5-10%) chance of a severe gust with any cell that
occurs south of Highway 200.

2) A warming trend into next week with possible widespread 80s
Tuesday and Wednesday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across
the area today with HREF max wind gusts bringing a small
chance(5-10%) for some isolated severe downburst gusts south of
Highway 200. Most of these showers should exit or dissipate by
the mid-evening hours.

Unsettled pattern will hold with two distinct periods for
prolonged showers and thunderstorms. One is Saturday afternoon to
Sunday evening, while the other is Wednesday afternoon to Thursday
evening. Rain totals appear to vary from a couple hundredths to
upwards of a quarter of an inch with a tenth of an inch being the
most common output. A ridge will build between these two evening
Sunday night into Tuesday night removing rain chances from the
forecast and allowing highs to reach upwards into the 80s for
Monday and Tuesday.

CONFIDENCE:
Confidence holds fairly strong through about Wednesday when the
second shortwave arrives and ensemble consistency begins to break
apart. Surface wind fields at this time are in flux along with
rainfall total grouping being wider over the ensembles. A surface
low pressure system may or may not form with the disturbance`s
passage with about half the ensembles producing it.

GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0800Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR - IFR

DISCUSSION: An exiting low pressure system has brought low
ceilings and limited fog across the far east this morning
impacting KGDV and KSDY. IFR ceilings should exit around 15Z with
remaining MVFR exiting around 18Z. Any lingering fog is expected
to exit earlier by about 12Z.

New showers and thunderstorms will begin entering the region
around 18Z today and last into mid evening. Gusty erratic winds
will be possible around any thunderstorms but especially near KGDV
this afternoon.

SFC WIND: Light and north turning variable as the morning
continues. Becoming W to NW and increasing to 10 to 15 kts this
afternoon before turning light and variable this evening.

GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow