293
FXUS65 KGGW 232021
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
221 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Cool and unsettled conditions remain into Friday, with showers
and isolated thunderstorms focused along the Yellowstone River
Valley today.

2) A warming trend into next week comes with decreased daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Expect occasional shortwaves helping produce enough lift and
instability for daily shower and thunderstorm chances, though
limited after Friday as an upper level ridge gradually builds in.
The low pressure system progression toward the east and highs in
was the mid 50s today will keep most thunderstorms over North
Dakota, particularly anything severe. As winds become light with
some clearing tonight, patchy frost and fog from residual moisture
cannot be ruled out. The consensus among ensembles is for
widespread warmer than normal highs in the 80s Tuesday and
Wednesday given southwest flow under the ridge pattern.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL and POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

+++ AFTERNOON UPDATE:

The main deviation from the NBM was blending in NAMNest data from
06Z run, as it best captured this morning`s remnant showers south
and east of Nashua. This guidance would paint a single band of
light to moderate showers south and east of Montana Hwy 24 through
tomorrow morning. +++

Confidence remains high for temperatures, but medium on exact
amounts and precise location of rainfall over the next week.
Probabilities of a quarter inch or more of rain through tonight
generally exceed 50% southeast of the Yellowstone River. There
have been no notable deviations from the base forecast, but
precise timing of precipitation chances will be monitored in the
short term.

-Zanker/Enriquez


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2020Z

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR - IFR

DISCUSSION: Showers generally along and south of Montana Hwy 200
will linger through Friday morning, pushing generally eastward
overnight. Late Friday morning, chances for light showers increase
for KGGW.

-Enriquez


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow