467
FXUS65 KGGW 230856
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
256 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Cool and unsettled conditions remain into Friday, with showers
and isolated thunderstorms focused along the Yellowstone River
Valley today.

2) A warming trend into next week comes with decreased daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Expect occasional shortwaves helping produce enough lift and
instability for daily shower and thunderstorm chances, though
limited after Friday as an upper level ridge gradually builds in.
The low pressure system progression toward the east and highs in
the 50s today will keep most thunderstorms over North Dakota,
particularly anything severe. As winds become light with some
clearing tonight, patchy frost and fog from residual moisture
cannot be ruled out. The consensus among ensembles is for
widespread warmer than normal highs in the 80s Tuesday and
Wednesday given southwest flow under the ridge pattern.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL and POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Confidence remains high for temperatures, but medium on exact
amounts and precise location of rainfall over the next week.
Probabilities of a quarter inch or more of rain through tonight
generally exceed 50% southeast of the Yellowstone River. There
have been no notable deviations from the base forecast, but
precise timing of precipitation chances will be monitored in the
short term.

-Zanker

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0830Z

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR - IFR

DISCUSSION: An area of low clouds progressing toward the southwest
out of Canada gives high (90%) confidence for a reduction to MVFR
ceilings across the TAF sites by 15Z. KSDY and KGDV will see this
linger into the evening including a period of IFR ceilings, along
with showers and an isolated thunderstorm during this time.
Elsewhere, look for drier conditions today with some clearing from
the west heading into the evening.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow