627
FXUS63 KGID 200920
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
420 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight.
  The main threats with these storms will be large hail and
  damaging winds.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible across at least a
  portion of the forecast area each day for the next 7 days. The
  highest chances (up to near 85%) will be tonight.

- High temperatures will range from the lower 60s to lower 80s.
  Low temperatures will range from the lower 40s to mid 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper trough extends from the northern Plains and Pacific
Northwest southward to Southern California. Shortwave troughs are
currently moving over the Midwest and southern/central Plains
resulting in thunderstorms across these areas. Temperatures across
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are
currently in the 50s and 60s. Fog is beginning to develop across
portions of the forecast area with light to calm winds present. The
previously mentioned upper trough will move slightly eastward today.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the day today (15%
to near 40% chance) as upper lift increases across the area from the
approaching upper trough. High temperatures today will be in the mid
70s to low 80s. Upper lift across the area will increase tonight
with fairly high CAPE, wind shear, and mid-level lapse rates. These
conditions will allow for increasing chances (up to near 85%) of
showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight. Some of these
storms will likely become severe with large hail and damaging winds
being the main threats. Low temperatures tonight will range from the
low 50s to mid 60s.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...

A portion of the upper trough will move over the central Plains on
Tuesday bringing in a cold front across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures on Tuesday are
expected to range from the low 60s to low 80s. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible (up to near a 75% chance) during the
morning hours with chances decreasing (up to a 45% chance) during
the afternoon. There is a marginal risk (per the SPC Day 2 outlook)
of severe storms for Tuesday (mainly the morning hours) for areas
generally along and east of Highway 281. Skies will begin to clear
Tuesday night with low temperatures in the low 40s to low 50s.
Temperatures are expected to warm up into the upper 60s to mid 70s
on Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and fairly light winds.
Southerly winds will return to the area Wednesday night as the
surface high moves eastward. Low temperatures will be in the mid 40s
to lower 50s.

Thursday through Sunday night...

An upper trough will move from the northern Rocky Mountains over the
northern and central Plains on Thursday. There is a 15% to 25%
chance of showers and thunderstorms across mainly the western 2/3rds
of the forecast area on Thursday. There is uncertainty as to whether
these storms will possibly be severe. High temperatures on Thursday
will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s with south to southeast
winds present. Low temperatures Thursday night are expected to range
from the upper 40s to near 60 degrees. Rain and storm chances
increase up to near 60% Thursday night along and ahead of a cold
front that will begin moving into the area. High temperatures on
Friday will mainly be in the 70s behind the cold front. Low
temperatures Friday night will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday from the previous day
with south to southeast winds. Another upper trough will move over
the northern Rocky Mountains and northern and central Plains
beginning Saturday night. This will increase lift over the area and
allow for increasing chances (up to near 30%) of showers and
thunderstorms. Low temperatures Saturday night will mainly be in the
50s. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up slightly from
the previous day. Low temperatures Sunday night will be similar to
those from the previous night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Low ceilings and/or visibilities are expected overnight into
Monday morning. The timing and ceiling height/visibility are
somewhat uncertain. VFR conditions are expected by 19z Monday.
Low ceilings/visibilities are once again possible after 00z
Tuesday. Winds will be mostly light and variable. Storms are
possible beginning around 00z Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt