862
FXUS63 KGID 052034
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
334 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures may warm up into the 90s for many locations
  across the area this afternoon with a cold front coming later
  today.

- After today, high temperatures will mainly be in the 70s and
  80s for the next 7 days.

- Rain and storm chances increase up to around 25% on Friday and
  up to around 60% Friday night.

- Lower rain and storm chances (up to around 20% to 35%) will be
  present Saturday morning, Saturday night, and Monday night
  through Tuesday night.

- There is some uncertainty with high temperatures today and
  strong to severe storm potential on Friday and Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Today through Thursday night...

An upper low is centered over Canada and extends southward over the
Midwest and northern/central Plains. A cold front associated with
this upper low/trough will move into south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas later today. A surface low is
present across the area ahead of the front with winds mostly out of
the southwest to west. These conditions will likely result in
temperatures warming up into the mid 80s to mid 90s today. The
timing of the front will factor in to how warm it gets today. Some
of the models are showing cooler temperatures for today so there is
some uncertainty in high temperatures. Low temperatures for tonight
are expected to mostly be in the 50s with light northerly winds and
clear to mostly clear skies.

The previously mentioned upper low/trough will move eastward on
Thursday with northerly winds and a surface high present across
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. High
temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with
sunny skies. Low temperatures Thursday night will mostly be in the
50s with mostly clear skies and light, mostly southerly winds.

Friday and Friday night...

An upper ridge will be centered over New Mexico with Nebraska and
Kansas under northwesterly flow aloft on Friday. Surface winds will
be out of the south to southeast with dewpoints in the 50s to lower
60s during the afternoon. A shortwave will move over the area on
Friday resulting in an increase in upper lift. These conditions will
result in increased chances (15% to around 25%) of showers and
thunderstorms Friday. Chances will increase to 30% to around 60%
Friday night. Potential for strong to severe storms will need to be
monitored with fairly high CAPE, wind shear, and mid-level lapse
rates expected. Temperatures on Friday will warm up a bit from the
previous day with highs expected to range from the lower 80s to
lower 90s. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the mid 50s to
mid 60s with variable winds.

Saturday through Tuesday night...

A cold front will push into the area on Saturday with north to
northeasterly winds. Temperatures will likewise cool from the
previous day with highs expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Temperatures Saturday night will be cooler with lows in the low 50s
to low 60s. The upper trough will deepen over the eastern part of
the country and the upper ridge will build over Texas and the Four
Corners region on Sunday. Northerly winds will continue on Sunday
with high temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than the previous
day. Southerly winds will return on Monday with temperatures similar
to the previous day. A shortwave trough will move over the area
Monday night. Chances of showers and thunderstorms (15% to around
25%) will increase across the area Monday night. Low temperatures
Monday night will range from the mid to upper 50s. Rain and storm
chances (15% to around 20%) linger into the day on Tuesday and into
Tuesday night. Temperatures will warm up into the low to mid 80s on
Tuesday. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
gusty out of the southwest then switch to the northwest by 21z
then to the north by 00z. Lighter winds are expected by 00z.
Winds will shift back to the northwest later tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt