Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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984 FXUS63 KGID 261141 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 641 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms may redevelop late this afternoon and into the evening, but organized severe weather is not expected. - Otherwise dry and fairly pleasant rest of the holiday weekend with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Monday will be on the breezy side, esp. N of I-80 with afternoon gusts near 30 MPH. - Most areas will remain dry and mild Tuesday and probably even most of Wednesday, with any low end precipitation chances confined to far SW/S portions of the forecast area. - Potentially active pattern returns Wednesday night into Thursday and continues into at least Friday-Saturday. This could be our next chance for organized severe weather, but it`s just too far out to determine any details. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 445 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Today: I think the main forecast message for today is that models have generally trended toward lesser coverage of showers and thunderstorms, and a more narrow window for which they`ll be possible. Guidance has trended more subsident and drier in the low levels, both of which should prove to be more hostile to convective initiation attempts within a very steep low level lapse rate environment. As a result, forecast soundings now maintain non-zero amounts of CINH and indicate potential for a lot of dry air entrainment. Still can`t rule out something isolated popping up anytime after 19-20Z, but appears the "greatest chances" (still only 30-40%) today will come from activity that develops over the higher terrain of the Black Hills region then moves SE. This activity will be "up against the clock" in terms of a quickly cooling BL after 00Z, but think portions of south central Neb. will probably get at least something between 21Z-03Z. Severe weather not really anticipated with this stuff due to weak instability AND shear...though some of the recent HRRR runs bring some gusty winds (40-50 MPH?) with the dying shwrs/storms this eve, which seems plausible given the amount of dry air in the low to mid levels. Outside of this fairly low end rain potential, should be a fairly nice day - through perhaps a bit brzy - given widespread highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Any shwr/storm chcs quickly fade after 03Z. Memorial Day - Wednesday: Looks like we could string at least a few mostly dry/quiet days with pleasant temperatures/humidity together for the start of the week. Mon will be brzy in the afternoon, esp. N of I-80 where gusts incr to around 30 MPH, but otherwise pleasant with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. It`s more of the same temperature-wise for Tue and Wed, and dew points look to remain seasonably low and comfortable in the 40s to low/mid 50s. Winds will be light on Tue, but then become brzy out of the SE for Wed with afternoon gusts around 25-30 MPH. There are some low- end (mainly 20-30%) shower/thunderstorm chcs that return as early as Tue and continue off and on into Wed, mainly for areas SW of the Tri-Cities. However, think the greater chances will remain S and SW of the forecast area where there will be better combination of low to mid level warm air advection/isentropic ascent and weak elevated instability. Wednesday Night - Saturday Models are in decent agreement that an upper ridge axis from SW TX into the Dakotas will begin to break down Wed. PM into Thu and allow for a series of low amplitude upper disturbances to move through the region in zonal to SW flow. This should lead to a gradually more active pattern once again. Models initially suggest a pretty good setup for daily High Plains convection as the primary instability axis remains W of the area. This activity would then try to move eastward into some variation of a nightly LLJ but then outrun the better moisture/instability. As such, agree with NBM that W half of the CWA will have higher chances (40-60%) for pcpn vs E half (20-40%), at least Wed night into Thu. Models suggest a stronger shortwave should progress E out of the N Rockies and onto the central/northern Plains later in the week, generally sometime in the Thu night to Sat time frame. This should help advect/shift the instability axis and associated EML plume further E, as well, perhaps leading to an increase in severe weather potential, esp. with any SEward moving cold front Fri or Sat. Obviously, timing and mesoscale details will be important - both of which can`t be nailed down this far out. Regardless of the severe weather potential, latest EPS has this as our next decent rain producer as it`s already showing 50-70% chances for at least 0.5" in this time frame, and 20-40% for more than 1". Not bad for days 5-7 in which there are undoubtedly timing differences amongst the members. Should see at least a day or two of more stable conditions before ensembles return instability back into the region early the following week. Outside of perhaps a 1-2 day "cool down" Fri-Sat, temperatures look to remain on the comfortable to seasonably warm side in the mid 70s to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Today: MVFR stratus is present in central Nebraska, as well as north central KS, but it`s becoming less likely that the area in between will fill in, so backed off from the MVFR CIGs for a few hrs this morning. Otherwise, should see some FEW-SCT CU develop through the aftn. Short-term hi-res guidance still brings some iso-scat high-based shwrs through the terminals, but not until the eve hrs now, generally 23Z-04Z. Could get some gusty winds from these shwrs. Outside of the shwrs, expect NW winds 10-12kt, with gusts near 18kt. Confidence: Medium. Tonight: Skies will clear by late evening and winds will back off to 5-8kt out of the WNW/NW. Confidence: High. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Thies