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000
FXUS63 KGID 222146
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
446 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Can`t rule out a few isolated/scattered showers and
  thunderstorms this evening into tonight across mainly the
  southern half of the forecast area. Not anticipating any
  severe weather, but some storms could be strong with small
  hail and gusty winds.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions (potentially spots of
  brief critical conditions) are expected across much of the
  forecast area Tuesday afternoon, with relative humidity values
  falling into the low-mid 20s and wind gusts around 30 MPH.

- A more active weather pattern looks to develop Thursday and
  continue on through the weekend. Severe weather is possible
  Thursday evening/night, then potentially again Friday/Friday
  evening depending on the timing of upper level and surface
  features.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 441 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Currently through tonight...

Upper air and satellite data showing generally zonal flow in
place across the region this afternoon, as we sit on the
southern side of low pressure spinning over the ND/Canada
border. Elsewhere across the CONUS, broad ridging remains near
the West Coast...another low pressure system is making its way
off the coast of VA/SC. The main impact from the system to our
north up to this point has been the accompanying surface cold
front pushing south...which at 3PM is roughly along a Silver
Creek to Beaver City line. Ahead of the front, southwesterly
winds gusting anywhere from 35-45 MPH have been common, even a
few gusts were closer to 50 MPH. Behind the front, winds switch
to the north-northwest, with gusts closer to 25-30 MPH. Overall
temperatures have worked out pretty well, a quicker passage of
the front would have made for a wider gradient across the
area...as it sits at 3 PM, north-northwest areas are right
around 70 degrees, with right around 80 in the south-southeast.

This evening into tonight, this cold front will continue to
gradually sink south into north central Kansas...and models
still showing the potential for a few isolated/scattered
showers and storms to develop along it. While there are some
minor differences with the exact time things develop and the
overall coverage, models are in pretty good agreement keeping
things focused south of Highway 6 and into north central Kansas.
Models continue to show meager instability through this
evening, but deep layer shear is strong...so while severe
weather is not anticipated, can`t totally rule out some strong
storms with small hail/gusty winds. A few models hint at some
showers try to reach further north later this evening and on, so
kept some low end precipitation chances in the forecast. Any
activity that develops is expected to taper off/move out by
sunrise Tuesday. The surface front loses its initial upper level
push and stalls out across far southern portions of our
forecast area late this evening...with winds area-wide
diminishing...before getting another push and reinforcing those
northerly winds as we get into that 09-12Z time frame. Skies are
expected to be partly-mostly cloudy, and even with winds
diminishing/remaining northerly, overnight lows are forecast to
be in the low-mid 40s.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Dry conditions are expected as we get into the daytime hours on
Tuesday, with upper level flow a bit more northwesterly as the
system currently to our north digs south into the Midwest and
that broad ridging slides east into the Rockies. Breezy
northerly winds are expected area-wide, with gusts 25-35 MPH
expected, then diminishing late in the afternoon as surface high
pressure sinks south into the region. Expecting partly cloudy
skies...with cooler highs ranging from the mid 60s in the north
to low-mid 70s in the south. Tuesday continues to have the
potential for widespread near- critical (potentially a few brief
spots of critical?) conditions...though cooler, dewpoints look
to be in the 20s, resulting in relative humidities dropping into
the low-mid 20 percent range. Didn`t issue any fire wx
headline, but any change up in temp or down in dewpoint may
result in needing one.

Precipitation chances return to the forecast late Tuesday night
and continue on into Wednesday...but overall confidence
remains on the lower side, so chances are still in the 20-30
percent range. Models showing a fairly subtle mid-level
disturbance sliding through the region and forecast chances are
broad in nature, but better chances look to be focused across
the the SSW half of the area and more so totally south. Little
instability is expected to be in place, so thunder continues to
be left out at this point. At the surface, high pressure sliding
east and low pressure organizing over the Rockies bring a
switch in winds back to the south for Wednesday...and breezy
conditions are expected, especially across the western half of
the area. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 60s, but if there
does end up being more widespread light precipitation through
the day, wouldn`t be surprised to see that trend down a bit.

Thursday and on...

By Wednesday evening, models are in pretty good agreement
showing an upper level low pressure system moving onto the
central/southern CA coast...with this system being our main
weather driver in the Thursday-Friday time frame. Late Wednesday
night-Thursday morning, though the main low is well west,
precipitation chances start increasing as a lead shortwave
disturbance moves in from the southwest and warm air/moisture
advection picks up. Forecast preciptiation chances increasing
into the 50-70 percent range during the daytime hours, but the
better chances look to be during the evening/overnight hours,
when the main upper level emerges out onto the Plains...aided by
a 45-50ish kt low-level jet. Though not in the more
typical/ideal afternoon/early evening time for severe
weather...this evening/overnight activity continues to have the
potential to be strong/severe, with models showing MUCAPE values
exceeding 1500 j/kg and deeper layer shear around 35-40 kts.
The better instability looks to be focused across the southern
half of the forecast area...which is included in the SPC Day 4
15 percent area (slight risk). Outside of the storm chances,
Thursday is expected to have gusty south-southeasterly winds,
with gusts of 30- 40 MPH not out of the question. Confidence in
highs isn`t high...current forecast is in the mid 60s-near 70
for most locations.

How Friday ends up panning out is still a little
uncertain...driven by questions with how Thursday/Thursday
night evolves and the overall timing of the upper low itself.
Looking at deterministic models...at 12Z Friday the main upper
low could be over the Sandhills of Nebraska or be further
southwest over northeastern CO. A slower/more southern track
would keep better preciptiation chances around the forecast area
longer...but would also be slower to clear the main surface
features out, keeping severe weather as potentially more of an
issue...mainly for areas east of Highway 14. The quicker/more
northern track dries us out and pushes the threat further east
by mid-late afternoon. No matter the timing, gusty southwesterly
winds ahead of the front will give way to gusty west- northwest
winds as the front passes through. Highs are forecast in the
70s for most locations...but like Thursday`s highs, confidence
in on the lower side.

Forward to the upcoming weekend, late Friday night into the
daytime hours on Saturday still looking to bring a brief break
in the action between the departing Thu/Fri system and another
system expected to move in Sat night. Models show this next
upper level closed low pressure system coming out of the Rockies
and onto the Plains a little further south than the Thu/Fri
system...but still brings another chance for widespread
precipitation to the area late Saturday night into the day on
Sunday. Being several days out yet, hard to have a high degree
of confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period, with the main
concern being with winds. Gusty west-southwest winds start off
the period, but an approaching surface cold front will be
bringing a switch to the north-northwest within the first couple
of hours. Gusts of 30+ MPH continue ahead of the front, gusts
behind the front look to be more in the 25-30 MPH range, and
should diminish with time late in the day. Winds turn more
northeasterly this evening/tonight, with speeds around 10-15
MPH...switching back to the north for the final few hours of
this period, with gusts back up near 25-30 MPH once again. Kept
a VCSH mention going this evening, can`t totally rule out some
isolated precipitation around the terminal areas, but confidence
in it occurring is not high.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP