Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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184 FXUS63 KGID 040937 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 437 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today. There is only a low chance for severe weather in southeastern portions of the area (Osborne to Geneva to the southeast). - Dry and hot on Wednesday. There is a chance (~40% for tri- cities) that high temperatures reach 90 degrees. - More chances for thunderstorms Friday through the weekend, although the threat for organized or widespread severe weather appears low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 437 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are currently moving across the area in response to an upper shortwave moving through the northern Plains. Near-term forecast models show coverage of rain/storms increasing later this morning later this morning (9am to 12pm) before a surface cold front and drier air arrive from the northwest. By late afternoon, this cold front will have pushed through most of the forecast area, except for our southeastern areas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of and near the front late this afternoon into this evening (4pm to 8pm). MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg and 0-6km shear of 30-40kts will support a few strong to severe updrafts for a brief period before the cold front pushes storms to our southeast this evening. Dry conditions are expected to return to the entire area by 10pm, at the latest. The entire area should will see a break from thunderstorm chances Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday could also be the warmest day of the year so far in some areas. Aided by a steady westerly wind, high temperatures are expected to range from the mid 80s to mid 90s (warmest in the south). Thursday will be a touch cooler, thanks to the passage of another frontal boundary Wednesday night. That said, high temperatures are still expected to be near-normal (highs in the low to mid 80s for most). The area remains in northwesterly upper-level flow Friday through the weekend and into early next week. Perturbations will bring off/on chances for rain and thunderstorms. Of course convective details are extremely uncertain, but the overall threat for severe weather appears to be relatively low (especially for early-mid June). The latest CSU-MLP probabilities only show the 5 percent contour in portions of the area Friday through Monday. As we head into next week, deterministic models favor increased troughing over the eastern CONUS, and ensembles favor below- normal temperatures (highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s). Ensembles also slightly favor below-normal precipitation into next week, although the signal is not overly strong for our forecast area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 There is only a low chance (10-20%) for MVFR ceilings in the 9-15Z timeframe on Tuesday. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected with spotty showers and thunderstorms through mid afternoon on Tuesday. Winds shift to the northwest Tuesday afternoon and become light/variable again Tuesday evening. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Mangels