Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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347 FXUS63 KGID 040556 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly between midnight tonight and noon Tuesday, isolated to scattered (overall spotty) shower and largely weak/thunderstorm activity will roam our coverage area (CWA). Cannot totally rule out some small hail (up to nickel size), but overall the severe threat is low. - Later Tues afternoon-early evening (mainly 4-8 PM), we`ll need to closely watch the far east-southeast fringes of our CWA in case a severe storm or two develops over that area. However, this is a low probability, with better chances focused just BARELY east-southeast of our CWA altogether. - Although not everybody will welcome it, especially those places that saw a little TOO much rain during the last week will surely welcome what is still expected to be a solid 60+ hour stretch of DRY/THUNDERSTORM-FREE weather from late Tues evening through at least Thurs night (a chance to dry out). - Between Friday-Monday, various, low-confidence chances for showers/storms re-enter our forecast, but overall these look fairly unorganized for the most part. - Temperature-wise: Following an overall very "normal" May, June continues to start off very "normal" as well, with highs each of the next 7 days in the 80s most areas, and overnight lows mainly between the mid 50s to low 60s. In other words, very typical readings for this time of year, and zero sign of an early heat wave. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 450 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 -- PRIMARY CHANGES TO THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PACKAGE VERSUS THE PREVIOUS ONE (issued this AM): - Honestly, nothing that is truly worth specifying. Mainly just "cosmetic"/minor tweaks to temperatures and rain/thunderstorm chances (PoPs). Want to emphasize that PoPs Friday and beyond are particularly murky on a day-to-day basis, and should definitely not be taken too literally this far out in time. -- 7 DAY FORECAST OVERVIEW/HIGHLIGHTS (greatest detail focused on the first 48 hours): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM: Once any light rain vacated our extreme southern KS CWA by around 9 AM, the remainder of today has been dry and uneventful. Aloft, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data clearly depict a fairly compact mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) VERY slowly churning eastward across northeast KS...just barely southeast of our CWA. In the wake of this disturbance, skies over our CWA this afternoon have ranged from mostly sunny to partly cloudy (northwest) to partly-mostly cloudy (southeast). At the surface, extremely light winds from this morning have gradually given way to steadier southerly breezes (but still only sustained 8-15 MPH at most). Temp-wise, highs are on track to be near to just barely below our early-AM forecast, with most places topping out 82-85 degrees. - THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Through at least midnight, confidence is fairly high in our going dry forecast, as any spotty activity currently to our southeast (associated with the KS MCV) should remain just to our southeast, and lack of forcing/weak capping should keep any "random" convection from popping with the heat of day. However, between midnight and sunrise, have 20-40% PoPs for isolated/scattered thunderstorms gradually spreading back into the CWA (mainly from west to east), as the next disturbance arrives from the west, in tandem with the development of a seasonably-weak southerly low level jet. There is minimal concern for any severe activity, largely owing to seasonably- weak deep-layer wind shear of only 20-30KT, but with elevated instability (CAPE) reaching 1000+ J/kg in some spots, some spotty stronger storms (hail up to around nickel size) certainly cannot be ruled out. Overall though, fully agree with SPC in keeping our thunderstorm outlook as only "general thunder). In other departments tonight, this is actually slated to be the overall warmest/mildest night of the next week, as the combination of increasing mid-high level clouds and lighter- but-steady southerly breezes mainly 5-10 MPH will keep things from dropping very far, and have lows aimed mainly 63-65. Especially if skies remain clearer a bit longer and/or winds trend a bit lighter, there is at least a small chance that parts of our CWA could see at least brief fog development late tonight-early Tues AM, but with a better signal for fog remaining to our south have kept any official fog mention out of our forecast for now. - TUESDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING: A mainly low-end chance for perhaps a spotty strong to severe storm or two is clearly the main concern. In the mid-upper levels, the southern reaches of a shortwave trough that will mainly swing across the Dakotas/southern Canada will cross the Central Plains, which in turn will drive a fairly weak cold front across our CWA from west to east. Between sunrise and early afternoon, there will be a continuation of the isolated/scattered showers and storm activity from late tonight, as it gradually shifts east across the CWA while ending from west to east. As with late tonight, MOST of this activity should be fairly weak, but a very rogue instance of marginally-severe hail (around quarter size) just cannot be ruled out and bears watching. Then, later in the afternoon-early evening (especially 4-8 PM), a broken line of strong to severe storms is expected to form along the leading edges of the cold front. IN THEORY, the vast majority of this activity should develop just BARELY east- southeast of our CWA and not be our issue. However, any slowing of this boundary whatsoever could easily put a brief severe storm risk into play for especially places mainly southeast of a Geneva NE-Tipton KS line, so this bears close watching. Hail to around quarter size/gusts to around 60 MPH would be the main threats, with marginal deep-layer shear only around 30KT being a limiting factor to a potentially bigger threat. In other departments Tuesday: - winds will gradually shift from westerly to northwesterly as the day goes on (from west to east), with speeds commonly 10-15 MPH with slightly higher gusts. - There is some modest uncertainty in high temps, given question about cloud cover, frontal speed etc. We are aiming for a modest gradient from near-80 far northwest, to mid-80s most other areas, with any upper 80s likely confined to our extreme south in KS. -- LATER TUES EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Once any possible storms clear our extreme southeast zones (which should be before sunset), the rest of the night looks very tranquil, with clearing skies and light speeds/variable direction breezes gradually trending southwesterly. Probably cannot rule out patchy fog (especially southeast), but will let later shifts take a closer look for formal inclusion. Low temps will be a good 5-10 degrees cooler than tonight (mainly 53-59). - WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Aloft, we will reside under northwesterly flow, as a shortwave dives southeast into the Great Lakes. We continue to have high confidence in a dry forecast for at least the vast majority of the CWA, but we`ll have to keep an eye on especially our eastern zones JUST IN CASE some storms developing in eastern NE/western IA manage to develop far enough west to impact us (low probability for now). Otherwise, the main story is that this looks to be the overall-warmest day of the week most areas, with westerly breezes helping drive highs into the mid-upper 80s Nebraska, and upper 80s-low 90s KS and also the Furnas County area. - THURS-THURS NIGHT: The dry forecast continues as we get a bit more influence from the eastern fringes of upper ridging to our west. However, in the wake of a weak cold front high temps should be 5+ degrees cooler than Wed (mainly 80-85). - FRIDAY-SATURDAY: While most of this time should be dry most areas, various, low- confidence rain/thunderstorm chances return as ridging flattens enough to make us more prone to subtle disturbances in continued northwesterly flow. Nothing looks overly-organized at this point, but at least Marginal severe probably cannot be ruled out (it`s June after all). High temps 80s. - SUNDAY-MONDAY: Continue low-confidence thunderstorm chances, although especially by Monday there are hints of MAYBE a more widespread/organized round as both the ECMWF/GFS hint at our flow turning more zonal (west-east) and a surface front passing through. However, this is a WEEK out and confidence is low at best. High temps mainly low-mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 There is only a low chance (10-20%) for MVFR ceilings in the 9-15Z timeframe on Tuesday. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected with spotty showers and thunderstorms through mid afternoon on Tuesday. Winds shift to the northwest Tuesday afternoon and become light/variable again Tuesday evening. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch AVIATION...Mangels