Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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785 FXUS63 KGID 252338 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 638 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move roughly W to E across the area this evening and overnight. Some of these storms may be strong to severe. Risk levels for severe weather range from Marginal N of Hwy 92 (level 1 of 5) to Enhanced (level 3 of 5) south of Hwy 24, per the SPC. Main concerns are large hail and damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes and flash flooding may also be possible. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may redevelop Sunday afternoon. A few of these may also be strong to severe with large hail as the primary threat, but most storms Sunday are not expected to reach severe criteria. - After a dry Monday, shower and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday evening and continue through the end of the work week. - High temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s with lows in the upper 40s and 50s through the forecast period. && .UPDATE... Issued at 538 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Dewpoints have slowly been rising as moisture advects into Kansas. There is increasing concern over the next few hours that a few strong to severe thunderstorms will develop, impacting areas of our north central Kansas counties. With the continued increase in moisture to the area, the concern for tornado development is increasing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 This evening/tonight: The main focus of this forecast is the potential for severe thunderstorms this evening, which are expected to persist into the overnight hours tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop west and south of the forecast area around 6PM this evening and then move across the forecast area this evening and overnight. As this does, increased low-level moisture will move north into the region, increasing the chance for severe storms. Models generally agree with the timing of storms moving across the area, but there has been a slight downtrend with some of the CAMs on how widespread they are, perhaps tapping into the persistent mid- to high level cloud cover or perhaps indicating that moisture will not flow as far north due to the stronger storms over Kansas and Oklahoma. That being said, if robust storms do develop, large hail up to golf ball size and damaging wind gusts of 60-70 MPH will be possible with any clusters or line of storm. Isolated tornadoes will be possible with discrete supercells in the Enhanced risk area this evening OR from QLCS spinups. Current thinking is that severe storms will be possible from approximately 7PM this evening to 2AM Sunday morning, with higher likelihood late in the evening/overnight as instability and better moisture reaches the area. With this being Memorial Day weekend, there will be a lot of outdoor activities, so have multiple ways to receive weather warnings/updates and have a plan of action and a safe place to go if thunderstorms develop nearby or move into the area. These storms will move across the area quickly so ensure you have enough time to get to that safe place quickly if necessary. Rest of the Holiday Weekend: There will be at least a slight chance of showers/storms all day Sunday, first with some lingering moisture Sunday morning then a potential redevelopment of storms Sunday afternoon. Cannot rule out an isolated storm with marginally severe hail Sunday afternoon/evening, but most storms are not expected to be severe. Sunday is not expected to be a washout, but isolated to scattered PM storms will need to be watched. Fortunately, Memorial Day itself is expected to be dry. Tuesday through Friday: Dry conditions continue through the daytime Tuesday with mild temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Elevated showers/storms may develop Tuesday evening/night, and this looks to be the start of another active period. A series of near-surface disturbances will move across throughout the week bringing a chance of showers and storms Wednesday, with better chances Thursday and possibly Friday as an upper level trough moves over the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast period. Winds remain gusty this evening from the south, becoming light and variable later this evening. There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening, with hail and gusty winds being the main concerns. Localized heavy rainfall may result in reductions to visibility for a brief period of time. With any thunderstorms, expect the possibility for stronger winds and wind shifts associated with thunderstorms and outflow. Thunderstorm chances will decrease from west to east after midnight. Heading into the day Saturday, winds will shift to the north. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wekesser DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Wekesser