Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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725 FXUS63 KGID 280543 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1243 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry and seasonably warm through Wednesday. - Wednesday evening/night, showers and thunderstorms move eastward off of the High Plains into the area. - A front moving across the area Thursday-Friday will bring the best chances for showers/storms, as well as perhaps severe weather. - Off and on showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday evening through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Tonight through Wednesday... High pressure over the central Plains and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to be seasonably warm with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s through Wednesday. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. That being said, there will be a low chance (~20%) of isolated off and on showers and thunderstorms south and west of the tri- cities Tuesday into Wednesday morning along a shortwave embedded in the flow. Wednesday evening through Friday... After a pretty dry first half of the week, a cold front will move eastward into the central Plains, pushing the high pressure out of the region and bringing our next main chances of showers and thunderstorms...although Wednesday evening they may struggle a bit to develop with the upper level ridge still over the region. Once this moves out Thursday though, precipitation chances will increase quickly, with the absolute best chances looking to be Thursday afternoon into Friday morning (65-85%) as the trough axis moves directly across the forecast area. Instability will also increase across the area, especially Thursday afternoon and evening. It is still a little too early to really dig down into details with confidence, but this may be our next chance at severe thunderstorms. There are also some indications within some ensemble model members for excessive rainfall and associated localized flooding over mainly eastern and southern portions of the forecast area Thursday/Thursday night. So far, these are the outliers as opposed to the consensus (most model guidance keeps the heavier rainfall amounts further south over Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas), but it will be something to watch over the next few days. As usual, we will have a better idea regarding both concerns with subsequent forecasts. Friday evening through next weekend... After the cold front departs the area, quasi-zonal flow will establish over the region. With shortwave disturbances embedded in the overall pattern, on and off showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday evening through the weekend. High temperatures will be in the low to mid-70s immediately behind the front Thursday/Friday AM, but are expected to recover into the 70s and 80s over the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR through the period. Expect off and on bouts of SCT clds around 9-12K ft, some of which may produce a few sprinkles. Lgt and vrbl winds this morning will become NW-N this afternoon, with perhaps some minor gusts at GRI. Winds will continue to back to NE-ENE this evening at around 6-9kt. Confidence: High. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Thies