801
FXUS63 KGID 282313
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
613 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and Thunderstorms are possible this evening for
southwestern portions of the area

- Highs in the 70s on Wednesday with precipitation chances (30-60%)
arriving late Wednesday night.

- Thursday and Thursday night see the highest chances (60-90%) for
precipitation with locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Additional precipitation chances (30-60%) this weekend.

- Warmer and Drier weather next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

This Evening and Overnight...

Highs are in the upper 70s to low 80s with partly cloudy skies. A
few showers and thunderstorms are possible (15-30%) southwest of a
Arapahoe, NE to Beloit, KS line this evening. Chances (20% or less)
will decrease after midnight, with the best chances to see any rain
across portions of north central Kansas. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 40s (north) to upper 50s (south).

Wednesday Daytime...

Any rain will come to an end by sunrise on Wednesday. Highs on
Wednesday will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s once again. Winds
will breezy with winds of 15 to 20 mph, and gusts of 25 to 30 mph.
The gustiest winds will be west of Highway 281.

Wednesday Night Through Friday...

The next chance for precipitation (30-60%) will arrive Wednesday
night. A line of thunderstorms over the panhandle of Nebraska
will move east into the area Wednesday night. Weak instability
and shear over the area will help to mitigate severe weather
concerns.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing after Sunrise on
Thursday, however there remains uncertainty on how widespread this
convection will be. This uncertainty continues with precipitation
chances late Thursday morning through the overnight hours. There is
support among the shorter range models for a lull in shower/storm
activity late Thursday morning, before thunderstorms redevelop
Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of and
along a cold front that will move into the area Thursday night.
Instability will be stronger than Wednesday night, along with
increased shear. This could allow for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms, however given the uncertainty in earlier day storms,
specific details are hard to pin down.

The other area of focus on Thursday will be with the potential for
locally heavy rainfall. A moist environment will be in place on
Thursday, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing PWAT anomalies of 1.5-
2 standard deviations above normal. Combined with slower storm
motions, areas that receive multiple rounds storms could see
accumulations of 2-3 inches through Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms will linger into the day on Friday. with
precipitation chances decreasing throughout the day. Highs on
Friday will be in the low to mid 70s.


This Weekend...

Chances for thunderstorms return to the area this weekend as a
series of shortwave troughs move across the Great Plains. There
remains some disagreement with the GFS and the ECMWF on the timing
and strength of these troughs. Regardless, thunderstorms will be
possible on Saturday and Sunday. Instability and shear look to be
sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms, however given the
increasing model divergence the specifics are uncertain. Highs this
weekend will be in the 70s and 80s with southerly winds.

Next Week...

Both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles indicate that ridging will build
over the western United States next week with a shift to warmer and
drier weather. This could bring the chance for portions of the area
to see their first 90 degree day this year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR Conditions expected through TAF period. Skies should remain
clear this afternoon. FEW-SCT Mid level cloud coverage will
move into the area this evening and continue overnight. MVFR
conditions are possible at the end of the taf period, though
confidence is not high in this scenario at this time. Have used
SCT050 to indicate the potential. Northerly winds will decrease
and become southeasterly overnight. Winds will increase after
sunrise with sustained winds approaching 15KTs by the end of the
TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis