898
FXUS63 KGID 031133
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
633 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will be possible this morning across north central
  Kansas. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Monday and Tuesday.

- Dry and warm conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday.
  Several locations in north central Kansas and portions of
  south central Nebraska may reach the 90s.

- Off and on precipitation chances return Friday into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Ongoing showers across northwestern and west central Kansas will
move into north central Kansas later this morning, bringing
additional chances (20-30%) for precipitation to the region.  An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out; however, severe
weather is not currently expected this morning.  Precipitation
chances will diminish by mid-morning, leaving much of the rest of
the day dry.  High temperatures are currently forecasted to be in
the mid-80s.  Lows tonight will be in the low to mid-60s.

Late this evening, there will be another round of showers and
thunderstorms developing in the Nebraska Panhandle and the
Sandhills.  These storms will enter the region late in the evening,
moving west to east overnight and continuing through Tuesday
afternoon.  At this time, severe weather is not expected with the
Tuesday convection.

Wednesday and Thursday are still on track to bring a drying period
to the region as northwest flow sets up over the Central High
Plains.  In the upper levels, models are showing split flow
developing, which is a deviation from the past few days.  The split
has a ridge over the western CONUS, high pressure over Southern
California, and a cut off low to the west of the Baja Peninsula
Wednesday morning. Moving through the day, the low remains over
open water in the south. Wednesday will be one of the warmer
days we`ve had in a while, with highs in the mid-80s for areas
along and north of Interstate 80. Areas between I-80 and the
Kansas/Nebraska border can expect mid-80s to low 90s. North
central Kansas will be in the low 90s. Overnight lows will range
from the mid-50s in the north to the mid-60s in the south.
Thursday will be slightly cooler with highs ranging from near 80
in the north to the mid-80s in north central Kansas.

Friday into the weekend brings continued uncertainty regarding
potential convection.  Models attempt to begin the process of the
low being absorbed into the northern split of the flow and bringing
it north and/or east heading into the weekend.  Meanwhile, a mid-
level shortwave trough is expected to drop into the region from the
northwest.  There will be a 20-30% chance of showers and storms,
mainly in the evening and overnight hours as the trough comes
through.

Isolated chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through the weekend.  A cold front will move through,
bringing some cooler temperatures.  Saturday highs will be mainly in
the 80s.  By Sunday, highs will range from the mid-70s in the north
to the low 80s in north central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period at both
terminals. Light and variable winds are expected through around
mid-afternoon. A few mid to high level clouds will remain over
the area this morning and into the afternoon as thunderstorms
continue to move to the east over south central Kansas. Heading
into mid-afternoon, winds will increase slightly, becoming
around 5-10kts from the south. There will be a chance for a few
showers and thunderstorms developing over the Nebraska Panhandle
and the Sandhills. These will slowly move east, into the region
during the overnight hours. At this time, confidence is low on
what impacts these storms may have for the terminals. As a
result, any mention of convection has been omitted from
prevailing conditions for the time being.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Wekesser