Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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306 FXUS63 KGLD 101826 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1226 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a chance for storms in Eastern Colorado during the evening hours on today. Potential for severe weather is low. - Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with near triple digit high temperatures. - Next system looks to impact the area Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1225 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Currently, a 500mb low pressure system is sitting over Texas and slowly moving east, another low is extending a weak trough over the western Great Lakes, and a mild ridge is moving east from the Great Basin. As the day progresses, a very weak shortwave will eject from the north-central Rockies and move east-southeast. This will allow a line of storms to form near the Cheyenne, WY area and move towards the CWA. Due to minimal shear and a fairly capped environment, the storms look to decay as they near Yuma county, around 0Z. The northwestern half of Yuma county will have a chance to see severe thunderstorms, likely just winds nearing 60 MPH. Far northwestern Kit Carson county may see some severe weather too, but Yuma has a higher chance (~10-20%). Farther to the southeast, locations may see some showers and strong winds, but severe level hazards will be fairly limited. Overnight, low temperatures will drop to near 60 and light showers and sprinkles may form near 12Z. This light precipitation would likely reach across majority of the CWA, if it does form. If these showers and sprinkle do form, they would last until around noon and greatly reduce the potential for convection in the evening hours. If the showers do not form, or stop early in the morning, we could see some thunderstorms move through the southern CWA tomorrow late afternoon. High temperatures tomorrow look to be in the upper 80s to low 90s while temperatures will cool off into the upper 50s to mid 60s Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 121 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 During the latter part of the work week an upper low situated off the Pacific Coast begins its inland progression, eventually breaking down the ridge, and allowing a return of more active weather to the area. Following triple digit heat on Thursday, temperatures at the end of the work week and over the weekend will lower slightly - into the mid 80s to low-mid 90s. Overnight lows are forecast in the upper 50s to middle 60s. After the warming/drying trend with an upper ridge in place mid-week, shower/storm chances return Thursday evening-night, continuing each day through the remainder of the long term period as the next system nears and subsequently moves through the area. Guidance suggests a potential for strong to severe storm development in this timeframe, supported by shortwaves moving through the flow, sufficient instability, shear, and increased moisture (still looking at PWATs around 1-1.75 inches for Friday). Will continue to monitor as this time period nears. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions at both KGLD and KMCK are expected to persist through the period. There is a chance (~25%) that KGLD will have a broken ceiling around 2,900 ft AGL today. Storms are expected in eastern Colorado today that may send out an outflow boundary that would cause a sudden shift and jump in winds. This would likely happen around 3Z, but timing confidence is very low. Otherwise, happy flying! && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...CA