335
FXUS63 KGLD 050711
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
111 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and hot with highs in the 90s Wednesday.

- A return to a more active weather pattern Friday night through
  Monday night as weather systems move off the Colorado front
  range and into the Tri-State area each afternoon through
  overnight hours.

- Hot with highs in the 90s Friday then cooling closer to normal
  highs for early June in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Tonight...a generally clear sky is expected. With surface high
pressure moving over the area, winds will generally be light and
variable for much of the night before increasing a bit from the
southwest toward sunrise west of Highway 27 as the high
continues moving to the southeast. Low temperatures are forecast
to be in the lower to middle 50s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...dry weather is forecast under
northwest flow aloft, in between a building upper ridge to our
west and low pressure across the Great Lakes. With very little
moisture in atmosphere, a sunny sky is expected during the day
with a clear sky overnight. High temperatures are forecast to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the
lower 50s to around 60. West to northwest winds gusting 20 to
perhaps 30 mph are forecast during the day with winds shifting
to the northeast overnight as a cold front moves in.

Thursday-Thursday night...the latest model guidance is similar
to the past few days, advertising dry weather during the day
with a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the night
as weather systems move east off the Palmer Divide and east-
northeast off the Raton Ridge and into our area. GFS
Precipitable water values (PWAT) do increase from the southeast
overnight with values up to 1.20 inches. With 0-6km winds from
the southwest in the 20-30kt range, threat for excessive
rainfall appears low at this time. High temperatures in the
lower to middle 80s with low temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree
range.

Friday-Friday night... any morning shower/thunderstorm activity
(20% chance) should be east of Highway 27, exiting the area by
around noon CDT. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms
(20%-30%) arrives from the northwest in the afternoon with 40%
chances through midnight before moving slowly east after
midnight. GFS PWAT values 1- 1.3 inches overnight with 0-6km
winds of around 15kts from the northwest. So, some may get some
more beneficial rainfall. High temperatures rise back into the
upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the middle 50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Long range guidance continues to indicate a somewhat more
active pattern this weekend into early next week. Synoptic
subsidence on the western periphery of an amplifying upper level
trough over the eastern CONUS will aid in the development of a
low-level (surface to 850 mb) ridge over portions of the Lower
Mississippi River Valley/Deep South -- and an influx of rich
low-level moisture from the TX Gulf Coast into portions of the
Southern and Central Plains -- where a synoptic regime
characterized by modest WNW-NW flow aloft will persist, a regime
in which [1] small amplitude waves on the southern fringe of
the mid-latitude westerlies may aid/enhance diurnal convective
development on the lee slopes of the central/northern Rockies
and [2] a large reservoir of instability (increasing with
eastern and southern extent) will strongly support upscale
convective growth and downstream propagation over portions of
the Central and Southern Plains. In other words, a pattern
supportive of long-lived mesoscale convective systems. Episodic
convection and severe weather are possible. At this range, in
this pattern, little more can be ascertained with confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1003 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR expected to prevail through tonight at both KGLD and KMCK.
There is a low probability of low ceilings and fog at KGLD
around sunrise Wednesday morning, both of which would lift by
mid morning. Afterwards, VFR expected to prevail at both
terminals through Wednesday night.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...99