123
FXUS63 KGLD 220742
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
142 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will develop Thursday afternoon and
  evening east of Highway 27 along a dry line. There is a
  marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms capable of
  producing large hail and damaging winds.

- A cold front Thursday night could be accompanied by northwest
  winds gusting up to 40 to 50 mph.

- For the holiday weekend, expecting a chance for storms both
  Saturday and Sunday, with some severe storms possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Zonal flow today will transition to southwest flow tonight. A
couple of weak waves will move through tonight, but CAMs have
gone dry and global models only show a few hundredths here and
there. So will go with a dry forecast today and tonight. Skies
will be mostly clear with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

An upper low will move through Wyoming during the day on
Thursday and into the Dakotas Thursday night. Surface low will
develop in the Nebraska panhandle with front to the southwest
and dry line trailing south into the forecast area. The dry line
may be the focus for scattered thunderstorm development by mid
afternoon, roughly located between Highway 27 and Highway 25.
The NAMnest is particularly aggressive with that scenario, but
the HRRR less so. Along and east of the dry line the environment
will be moderately unstable with deep layer shear of 25-30 kts.
The parameters suggest some potential for severe storms with
mainly a hail and wind threat. To the west of the dry line,
elevated fire weather conditions will develop with relative
humidity dropping into the teens and southwest winds gusting
20-25 mph. The cold front will surge southward in the late
afternoon and evening hours and may be the focus for additional
convective development. There will be a few hours of gusty
northwest winds behind the front with models showing the
potential for 40-50 mph gusts. High temperatures will be in the
mid to upper 80s and lows Thursday night in the 40s.

Zonal to slight southwesterly flow continues on Friday. Another
weak shortwave moves through in the afternoon/evening but models
not doing much with it as for precipitation. Moisture will be
very limited, dew points in the 30s, with little to no
instability. Can`t discount and isolated shower or sprinkle, but
most will be dry. High temperatures will be in the lower 70s and
lows Friday night in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

From the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF, there will be a couple
easterly moving shortwaves this weekend which will bring chances for
precip. Both of these will affect the CWA mainly during the
afternoon hours into the evening. Going into the beginning of next
week, amplified 500mb ridging will push east off the Rockies.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over Colorado and move
east-southeast during the afternoon and evening hours through
southern kansas this weekend. The system for Sunday does drop a bit
further south than Saturday`s feature. Both days will see about 20-
40% chances for rw/trw, but Sunday will have better areal coverage
of the CWA. GFS soundings do show better instability on Saturday for
the eastern portion of the CWA, suggest some strong to severe storm
potential. On Sunday around 00z Monday, weaker instability but
inverted-V soundings are present w/ DCape around 900-1000j/kg
suggesting winds could be main factor if storms develop.

High pressure does nose south into the region behind the Sunday
system for Monday, sliding east on Tuesday allowing for a couple
warm and dry days.

For temps, daytime highs this weekend will range from the mid 70s
into the lower and some isolated mid 80s. Warmest areas will be
south of the Interstate. Going into the beginning of next week,
highs on Monday will range in the lower to mid 70s north of the
Interstate, with mid 70s to around 80F south. On Tuesday, a tighter
range is expected with a mix of upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight
lows will range from the mid 40s west into the lower to mid 50s east
for each night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 945 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
northwest wind under 12kts at taf issuance will veer to the west
at similar speeds through sunrise. During the daytime hours,
winds continue to back to the south at speeds under 12kts
through 22z. After 23z, southerly winds increase a bit into the
12-15kt range.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A west
wind under 12kts at taf issuance will slowly back to the
southwest by 21z, south by 00z, then southeast after 03z. Speeds
generally under 12kts. Showers will be possible at or in the
vicinity of the terminal from 06z-08z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99