801
FXUS63 KGLD 270340
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
940 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy winds with a few chances for showers/storms through
  the remainder of the day. Severe weather is not expected.

- Warm and active pattern is expected next week, with chances
  for storms bringing an associated flooding risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

The system which brought a cold front along with a few rounds of
storms through the region yesterday evening into this morning has
since continued off towards the east. A cu field has developed over
the region this afternoon with 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT) temperatures in
the 70s to low 80s. With another wave within the west-northwest
flow, have started to see a few showers/storms developing across
southwest Nebraska, moving generally east-southeastward. Shower/
storm chances are anticipated to increase with eastward extent.
Severe weather is not expected. Overnight lows are forecast to
fall into the middle 40s to lower 50s.

For the Memorial Day holiday, pleasant weather remains forecast as a
ridge of high pressure builds in, giving mostly sunny skies, light
west-northwesterly winds, and high temperatures in the middle 70s to
middle 80s. Overnight, temperatures fall into the middle 40s to
middle 50s and we`ll have slight chance for development of a few
showers/storms for locations generally along/south of I-70 as a weak
wave moves through. Additionally, winds veering towards the east-
southeast may allow for development of fog and/or low stratus across
parts of the area overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning -
will continue to monitor.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Following the holiday, a more active pattern returns, anticipated to
bring some moisture into the region over the work week. While
the upper ridge moves over the Rockies on Tuesday, an embedded
disturbance will move through from the southwest, introducing
slight chance to chance PoPs by afternoon, continuing into the
evening and overnight period. The upper ridge will move over the
Plains mid- week, and an upper trough will enter the western
CONUS. This will shove the ridge eastward and prompt shower/
storm development by Wednesday afternoon-evening. During the
latter part of the work week, the upper low swings across the
western Canada/US border, generating additional waves as it does
so, allowing better chances for showers/storms.

With the daily chances for thunderstorms generally moving off the
high terrain to our west in the Tuesday through Friday timeframe,
there is some potential for severe/flooding threats as ample shear,
instability, and moisture (PWATs towards 1+ inch) is available. WPC
has included parts of the area in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall Tuesday (far southern portions of the CWA), Wednesday
(entire area), and Thursday (most of the area east of the CO/KS
border).

Heading into the weekend, there is lesser forecast confidence;
however, the current forecast includes slight chance showers/
storms as a disturbance is anticipated to move through on the
backside of the upper trough. Flow aloft then becomes
increasingly zonal as the trough continues off to the east and
it appears upstream ridging begins building in, potentially
bringing a warming trend and some hotter temperatures to the
region at the start of June.

Regarding temperatures, highs are forecast generally in the upper
70s to middle 80s, slightly cooler at the end of the work week/start
of the next weekend. Overnight lows are forecast generally in the
upper 40s to 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 13z.
From 14z-01z, northwest winds under 10kts veer to the north
then northeast at similar speeds. After 02z, winds continue to
veer to the northeast then east at speeds under 10kts.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 13z.
From 14z-00z, a northwest to northerly wind at speeds up to
11kts is expected. After 01z, winds veer to the northeast,
decreasing to around 5kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99