785
FXUS63 KGLD 210808
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
208 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe storms possible through the remainder of the
  overnight for areas east of Highway 83 along the Kansas and
  Nebraska border.

- Temperatures in northeast Colorado will fall into the upper
  30s Wednesday night and Thursday morning, where some patchy
  frost is possible.

- Scattered thunderstorms will develop Thursday afternoon and
  evening east of Highway 25 along a dry line. While severe
  storms are not currently expected, stronger storms may produce
  small hail.

- A cold front Thursday night will be accompanied by northwest
  winds gusting up to 55 mph.

- For the holiday weekend, expecting a chance for storms both
  Saturday and Sunday, with severe storms possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

Another shortwave trough will move through this morning on the
heels of the exiting system. It will bring another round of
light precipitation as it moves from northeast Colorado to
southwest Nebraska between 12z and 18z. Additional rainfall
amounts this morning will generally be between a tenth and a
quarter of an inch, highest amounts in southwest Nebraska.
Expect a break in precipitation this afternoon as well as some
sun with highs in the 60s to lower 70s far south. Another
shortwave will move out of Colorado late this afternoon and
tonight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop first
along the Palmer Divide late this afternoon, spreading into the
remainder of the area this evening, then ending late.
Instability will be very limited and no severe storms are
expected. Another tenth to a quarter of an inch of QPF can be
expected, this time highest amounts in Colorado. As skies clear
overnight, low temperatures will range from the upper 30s in
Colorado to the upper 40s in Hill City.

Wednesday will see zonal flow aloft and dry conditions during
the day. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s with
light winds. A weak wave comes out of Colorado Wednesday night
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Instability
remains extremely limited and no severe storms are expected.
Precipitation amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch. Low
temperatures will ranged from the lower 40s in northeast
Colorado the lower 50s in Hill City.

Thursday will transition to southwest flow aloft with the next
shortwave trough arriving in the afternoon. Temperatures will
warm well into the 80s. Surface pattern shows a dry line
developing and will be the focus for convective initiation
Thursday afternoon in eastern portions of the area. East of the
dry line there will be moderate instability with SBCAPE between
1000-2000 j/kg. However, deep layer shear is fairly low at only
15-20 kts. While showers and thunderstorms appear likely, the
lack of shear will likely result in pulse storms with only a
marginal risk of small hail. Showers and thunderstorms continue
in the east Thursday night, with a cold front surging south
Thursday evening. Models show breezy to windy northwest winds
with the front: the ECMWF is gusting 50-55 mph while the GFS is
gusting 40-45 mph. Given the recent precipitation, don`t expect
blowing dust to be an issue. Models show between a quarter and
a half inch of QPF in eastern areas Thursday night. Winds and
precipitation gradually diminish overnight with low temperatures
ranging from the lower 40s to the lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

Temperatures will cool off again on Friday behind the cold front
with highs in the low to mid 70s. A weak wave will come out of
Colorado in the zonal flow Friday night. However, there is
little moisture return and instability is minimal, so no severe
storms are expected. Precipitation amounts expected to be around
a tenth of an inch. Lows will be in the 40s.

For the holiday weekend, temperatures will be in the 70s on
Saturday and around 80 on Sunday. There will be chance for
showers and thunderstorms both days as a couple of systems move
through in the active pattern. Weak to moderate instability is
forecast on Saturday with plentiful deep layer shear of around
50 kts. On Sunday, a cold front moves through in the afternoon
with moderate instability ahead of it. Deep layer shear is a bit
weaker at around 30-40 kts. Hard to rule out severe storms
either day given those parameters.

On Monday, will transition to northwest flow aloft as an upper
low moves from the northern plains into Missouri. Should be dry
assuming the models are right with the track of the upper low.
It will also be breezy with both the ECMWF and GFS showing
northwest winds gusting over 40 mph. Temperatures will be near
normal with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024

GLD: IFR-LIFR conditions associated with low ceilings are
expected after midnight (~06Z). While convection cannot be
ruled out at the beginning of the TAF period, the latest high
resolution convection allowing guidance.. and ongoing radar
trends.. suggest that activity will likely remain ~20-30 miles
north of the GLD terminal. Ceilings are anticipated to gradually
lift/improve to VFR late Tue morning and early Tue afternoon.
Variable winds will abruptly shift to the NNW-NW and strengthen
to 20-30 knots within a few hours of sunrise (as a lee cyclone
over western KS progresses eastward into central KS). Breezy
NNW-NW winds will persist through late morning to early
afternoon.. decreasing by mid-late afternoon.

MCK: Expect conditions to rapidly deteriorate ~07-08Z as severe
thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging
winds progress eastward from Hitchcock County into Red Willow
County. Episodic showers and storms are possible throughout the
day on Tuesday. 10-15 knot NNE-NE winds will shift to the NNW-
NW and increase to 15-25 knots within a few hours of sunrise (as
a lee cyclone in western KS progresses eastward into central KS
and NE).. persisting through the day on Tue.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BV