117
FXUS62 KGSP 131824
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
224 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue into the weekend as a hot upper level
ridge builds into our region from the west.  There may be a brief
afternoon ridgetop shower or storm in the mountains.  Isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected early next
week as a weak cold front approaches from the north.  The hottest
days are expected to be Friday and Saturday, then the heat will
continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cloud cover remains the highest across the mtns this afternoon as
stg subs continues to suppress overall convective activity. A few
showers and maybe a couple brief thunderstorms are possible across
the mtns this afternoon, but most areas will remain dry. Decent
cooling conds setup overnight, but temps will likely be held a cat
or so abv normal with the abv normal temps on tap this afternoon.

An even more suppressive environ develops tomorrow as the upper
ridge builds in from the west. A fly in the ointment will be a
shot of mlvl energy traversing the flow possibly combining with
a weak sfc bndry and producing isol showers east of the mtns. The
hires models diverge with the degree of coverage Fri afternoon
and have sided with the more conservative parings which maintains
better run-run continuity and seems more reasonable considering
the synoptic pattern. Thus, will anticipate afternoon ridgetop
convection once again, but likely more isol and short lived
activity than today. Highs Fri will respond to the increasing
dynamic warming with max temps reaching the l90s east of the
mtns and u80s across the mtn valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

1) Isolated Diurnal Shower and Thunderstorms Possible Saturday

2) Better Chance for Diurnal Showers and Thunderstorms on Sunday

3) Hot Temperatures Stick Around in the Mountain Valleys and East of
the Mountains Each Afternoon

As of 130 PM EDT Thursday: An upper anticyclone will gradually build
into the Southeast through the short term. Meanwhile at the sfc, a
dry and weak cold front will track across the forecast area Friday
evening into daybreak Saturday. No precipitation or increase in
cloud cover is really expected with such dry air in place aloft. The
southern periphery of a sfc high pushing east across the eastern
Great Lakes region will graze the forecast area on Saturday keeping
mostly dry conditions around. A few isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the southwest NC mountains
Saturday afternoon. Capped PoPs to slight chance (15%-17%) for now.
The center of high pressure pushes off the Northeast Coast Sunday
afternoon but the southwestern periphery of the sfc high will
continue to extend into the forecast area through the rest of the
short term. This will allow SE`ly winds to develop, leading to
return flow off the Atlantic. With this influx of Atlantic moisture
expected, diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on
Sunday. Have chance PoPs across the western zones (15%-35%), with
the highest PoPs confined to the mountain zones. Temps will be
around 4-6 degrees above climo through the period, with highs
rebounding into the upper 80s/lower 90s in the mountain valleys and
east of the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) Diurnal Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Continue

2) Hot Temperatures Continue East of the Mountains

As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: The upper anticyclone will be centered
over the Carolinas Monday into Monday night before gradually lifting
northward into the Northeast Tuesday into Tuesday night. The center
of the anticyclone will remain over Pennsylvania and New york
Wednesday into Thursday. At the sfc, the southwestern periphery of a
sfc high, located in the western Atlantic, will continue to extend
into the Southeast through the period. With lingering SE`ly return
flow off the Atlantic remaining in place, diurnal shower and
thunderstorm chances will linger throughout the period, mainly
across the mountain zones. However, the latest global models are
coming in drier after Monday. Thus, have the highest PoPs (chance,
25%-43%) over the mountains on Monday, with lower PoPs (slight
chance, 15%-22%) the rest of the period. Temps will remain around 2-
5 degrees above climo through the period, with highs rebounding into
the upper 80s/lower 90s east of the mountains each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conds to continue thru the 18Z TAF
set. Strong riding aloft will continue make for mainly dry conds
across the area expect for mtn top convec away from KAVL. A weak sfc
bndry pushes east during the afternoon and there could be a few
showers approaching KCLT late, but it looks to occur later than 00z
Sat. Winds will remain quite weak and ill defined at times, but
generally se/ly today then becoming aligned more w/ly to nw/ly Fri
afternoon with bndry passage.

Outlook: Surface high pressure remains over the area through the end
of the week with minimal chance for convection and associated flight
restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO/JDL
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SBK