Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
940 FXUS62 KGSP 101818 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 218 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The active summertime weather will continue thru the end of the week and into the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunder- storms each day. High temperatures will increase again over the weekend and early next week as an upper ridge amplifies. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 150 PM Thursday: Within the seasonably rich PWAT airmass, SBCAPE values have blossomed to more than 2000 j/kg, and within this axis, deep convection has become numerous. As the afternoon wears on, aided by a weak to moderate westerly steering flow and additional formation on eastward moving outflow boundaries, isolated foothills and piedmont activity should become numerous as well. Thermodynamic profiles depict moist profiles with thin tall CAPE. Despite at least some eastward motion with storms today, scattered storms will have the tendency to train leading to isolated excessive rainfall with efficient rainfall rates. In addition, despite paltry downdraft CAPE values, a few storms will pulse to severe limits, resulting in areas of damaging wind gusts. Unlike last night, the CAM consensus translates clusters of tstms east of the cwfa by 02z. Given the moist boundary layer and weak sw flow, widespread low clouds and locally dense fog is likely. Not very much changes with respect to the weather pattern for Friday, still some westerly flow, developing moderate instability and seasonably rich moisture. Sensible wx will feature diurnally enhanced tstms becoming numerous again with isolated gusty storms and locally excessive rainfall possible. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 12:10 PM EDT Thursday: Mid level ridging will remain in place across the region for the weekend. High temperatures will begin to heat up again to 2-5 degrees above normal after a brief break from well above normal readings today and Friday. Heat indices are not expected to be an issue. With the abundant moisture in place, we expected shower and thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening with the highest pops in the afternoon and evening. To summarize, it will be pretty typical summer weather. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 12:35 PM EDT Thursday: Mid level ridging will continue into the early and middle parts of next week with typical summertime conditions. Highs early int the week should be 3-5 degrees above normal on Monday, then trending slightly less hot with highs near normal by mid week. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue each day mainly during the afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to percolate and move east across the FA into early evening. With the cvrg expected to remain and/or become numerous, the probability of seeing a tstm at any specific terminal location remains high enough to carry a tempo for tsra through 22-23z. Convection allowing models spread outflow aided clusters of thunderstorms east of the FA in the 01-02z timeframe. Given the weak sw flow and very moist blyr, expect another night of widespread low clouds and fog. After this afternoon`s rainfall, locally dense fog is probable as well. Slow improvement in the pre-dawn flight restrictions is expected as the morning hours wear on with the onset of thunderstorm chances in the mtns by 17z. Outlook: Typical summertime weather is expected into early next week, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon/evening and fog and/or low stratus possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SCW NEAR TERM...CSH SHORT TERM...CSH LONG TERM...SCW AVIATION...CSH