793
FXUS62 KGSP 140541
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
141 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue into the weekend as a hot upper level
ridge builds into our region from the west.  There may be a brief
afternoon ridgetop shower or storm in the mountains.  Isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected early next
week as a weak cold front approaches from the north.  The hottest
days are expected to be Friday and Saturday, then the heat will
continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1:15 AM Friday: Some patches of stratocu have developed over
the NC mtns and foothills over the past few hrs, but otherwise the
rest of the fcst area remains clear with light to calm winds. With
the light winds in place and RH values above 90% at a few sites, I
can`t rule out patchy fog early this morning, especially in the Little
TN Valley. Elsewhere, it will likely be too dry. Decent cooling con-
ditions setup overnight, but temps will likely be held a category or
so above normal due to above normal temps on Thursday.

Otherwise, an even more suppressive environ develops tomorrow as
the upper ridge builds in from the west. A fly in the ointment will
be a shot of mid-lvl energy traversing the flow possibly combining
with a weak sfc bndry and producing isol showers east of the mtns.
The hires models diverge with the degree of coverage Fri afternoon
and have sided with the more conservative parings which maintains
better run-run continuity and seems more reasonable considering the
synoptic pattern. Thus, will anticipate aftn ridgetop convection
once again, but likely more isolated and short-lived activity than
today. Highs Friday will respond to the increasing dynamic warming
with max temps reaching the l90s east of the mtns and u80s across
the mtn valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

1) Isolated Diurnal Shower and Thunderstorms Possible Saturday

2) Better Chance for Diurnal Showers and Thunderstorms on Sunday

3) Hot Temperatures Stick Around in the Mountain Valleys and East of
the Mountains Each Afternoon

As of 130 PM EDT Thursday: An upper anticyclone will gradually build
into the Southeast through the short term. Meanwhile at the sfc, a
dry and weak cold front will track across the forecast area Friday
evening into daybreak Saturday. No precipitation or increase in
cloud cover is really expected with such dry air in place aloft. The
southern periphery of a sfc high pushing east across the eastern
Great Lakes region will graze the forecast area on Saturday keeping
mostly dry conditions around. A few isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the southwest NC mountains
Saturday afternoon. Capped PoPs to slight chance (15%-17%) for now.
The center of high pressure pushes off the Northeast Coast Sunday
afternoon but the southwestern periphery of the sfc high will
continue to extend into the forecast area through the rest of the
short term. This will allow SE`ly winds to develop, leading to
return flow off the Atlantic. With this influx of Atlantic moisture
expected, diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on
Sunday. Have chance PoPs across the western zones (15%-35%), with
the highest PoPs confined to the mountain zones. Temps will be
around 4-6 degrees above climo through the period, with highs
rebounding into the upper 80s/lower 90s in the mountain valleys and
east of the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) Diurnal Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Continue

2) Hot Temperatures Continue East of the Mountains

As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: The upper anticyclone will be centered
over the Carolinas Monday into Monday night before gradually lifting
northward into the Northeast Tuesday into Tuesday night. The center
of the anticyclone will remain over Pennsylvania and New york
Wednesday into Thursday. At the sfc, the southwestern periphery of a
sfc high, located in the western Atlantic, will continue to extend
into the Southeast through the period. With lingering SE`ly return
flow off the Atlantic remaining in place, diurnal shower and
thunderstorm chances will linger throughout the period, mainly
across the mountain zones. However, the latest global models are
coming in drier after Monday. Thus, have the highest PoPs (chance,
25%-43%) over the mountains on Monday, with lower PoPs (slight
chance, 15%-22%) the rest of the period. Temps will remain around 2-
5 degrees above climo through the period, with highs rebounding into
the upper 80s/lower 90s east of the mountains each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions to continue thru
the 06z taf period at all terminals. Mostly clear skies and light
to calm winds are expected overnight and thru most of the morning.
More cumulus clouds and some high cirrus are expected again this
afternoon with a slight chance for some convection over the higher
terrain and into the Foothills. With chances currently less than
25% in the vicinity of KAVL and KHKY, I have no mention of it in
the tafs. Winds will eventually become W to NW again this afternoon,
but remain light (ie, 5 kts or less).

Outlook: Weak sfc high pressure remains over the area thru the end
of the week and into the weekend, with minimal chances for convection
and associated flight restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO/JDL
NEAR TERM...JPT/TW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JPT