992
FXUS62 KGSP 181414
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1014 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure atop the region will suppress any storms from
developing this week until moisture returns on Saturday. A heat
wave gets underway on Friday and remains hot through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10:05 AM EDT Tuesday: SCT/BKN stratocumulus covers much of the
CWA this morning in a developing easterly low level flow regime.
Meanwhile, extensive upper ridging will remain in place across the
eastern CONUS through the period, while robust surface high pressure
will remain centered over the north Atlantic and dominate the
pattern as far south as FL. This pattern will allow for large-scale
weak subsidence across our region today and tonight, while the
easterly flow will support maintenance of relatively low (for
mid-June, anyway) theta-E air and weak-at-most afternoon
instability. Having said that, can`t rule out a brief isolated
ridgetop shower or two this afternoon, but dry conditions are
otherwise expected. Max  temps today will be similar to
Monday...slightly above climatology over the lower terrain and near
climo over the mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 105 AM EDT Tuesday: Expecting to make little change to the
going dry and warming forecast for Wednesday and Thursday.  The cwfa
remains progged to be within the southern periphery of strong NE
CONUS anticyclone to start off the period.  With the attendant sfc
ridge axis just north of the region, an easterly flow will be seen,
countering the subsidence from the upper ridge, leading to near
normal temperatures on Wednesday.  Large scale subsidence remains in
place through Thursday while the sfc/llvl easterly flow weakens
thanks to the southward sinking sfc ridge.  Based on this, maximum
temperatures will be a few deg F higher, perhaps hitting 90 in a few
Piedmont locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday: The positioning of the upper ridge axis is
progged to sink south to pretty much atop the cwfa to start off the
period and begin a slow weakening trend.  There should remain enough
large scale subsidence to keep the atmosphere capped despite
promoting further warming to about a category above climo.  Despite
ever so slowly falling upper heights atop the region, enough
subsidence should linger to aid in further warming with some
Piedmont locations hitting 95 deg f Saturday afternoon.  Diurnally
fired tstm cvrg should struggle to reach climo values, with the
better chances acrs the mountains Sat afternoon/evening. During the
latter half of the period, daily tstm chances should steadily
increase coincident with the slow influx of Atlantic moisture and at
least some mean flow, but at this point, no break from the above
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions to continue at all
terminals thru the 12z taf period. The only exception will likely
be at KAVL where they are currently observing MVFR cigs and 6 sm
visby. It`s looking like they probably won`t go any lower this
morning restriction-wise, so I`ll remove the TEMPO for IFR visby
and cigs. Regardless, I expect any lingering fog to burn off and
cigs to sct by late morning. Otherwise, things should remain dry
across the area today except for some very isolated ridgetop con-
vection, which does not warrant a mention in any taf. Outside of
the mtns, winds will remain SELY thru the morning and then back
to a more ELY direction by the afternoon and pick up speed-wise.
I also included some low-end gusts at the Upstate terminals for
the aftn/evening. At KAVL, winds will be light to calm thru mid-
morning and pick up from the SE again by the afternoon with some
low-end gusts expected there as well.

Outlook: An expansive upper ridge will keep things mostly dry with
VFR conditions thru Friday. Mtn valley fog and/or low stratus may
develop each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL/JPT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JPT