450
FXUS61 KGYX 102233
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
633 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Somewhat unsettled daytime weather is expected to continue
into Wednesday as upper level low pressure lingers overhead.
Warmer and drier weather is expected Thursday with a cold
frontal passage possible Friday with more showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure moves in for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM Update... Diurnally driven showers continue to dissipate
as they sink south and east this evening with some clearing now
taking place across portions of the interior within the
downslope flow. This drying trend will continue to be the theme
through this evening as skies clear overnight. Other than
tweaking winds and sky cover, as well as loading in the latest
observations, the inherited forecast remains on track.

Previously...
Any diurnal showers quickly dissipate this evening with the loss
of heating. A few may linger longer in the mountains. Clouds
will also diminish with the loss of heating, but will likely
last into the night in the mountains. Low temperatures based on
a blend of MOS guidance. Areas of fog may develop, especially
in the northern valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low continues to hang around over northern New England on
Tuesday. This will allow for the repeat development of boundary
layer cumulus and scattered showers, with highest PoPs across
eastern zones where mid and upper level temperatures will be
lower. Highs will be in the 70s nearly all locations except
higher elevations.

Similar to this evening and tonight, clouds and showers will
diminish with loss of heating, with some valley fog possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overview: Mid to late week will feature a pattern change,
mainly noticeable by warmer temperatures and increasing chances
of showers and thunderstorms Friday. A more seasonable weekend
sets up with drier conditions before another likely warmup into
early next week.

Details: Tuesday will be a good test for how shower coverage
may be on Wednesday. Still some uncertainty on how this plays
out due to weak instability and shear, but guidance QPF
providing a good footprint of showers. Believe the solution will
be seeing how CAMs entertain this environment. Current thinking
is a lot of this lift will be from convergence over the higher
terrain or a pop up shower or two outside of this region. These
would be short lived and rain themselves out, but outflow could
set off neighboring showers as well. Either way, kept the best
chances again over the higher terrain, with lesser chances
across the interior and coast. The chance of these locations
seeing a washout are low, and would expect cells to remain
isolated amid the cloudy sky.

Thursday, temperatures increase with warm front approaching
along the Quebec border. Timing and potency of this front is in
question, and could influence some precip during the day. More
interesting day of weather may be on Friday as low pressure
tracks just to the west. Warm temps will be ahead of this, with
NBM bringing some southern NH cities into the upper 80s to
around 90. Cold front should push across the warm sector in New
England with the chance for thunderstorms. Ensemble profiles, as
coarse as they are, do show decent deep shear. Still plenty of
variation in instability parameters, likely dependent on frontal
passage or perhaps upstream convection moving east into the
region. Closer to the axis of the low, some training showers or
storms will be possible, with a WPC Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall noted towards the NH/ME border with Quebec.

High pressure and more seasonable temps follow up for the
weekend. It looks pleasant as drier air moves down for a break
before another possible warm up to well above normal temps in
the extended next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Widely scattered showers will dissipate this
evening with loss of daytime heating. We expected VFR conditions
overnight except where areas of fog develop. VFR conditions are
expected Tuesday with widely scattered afternoon showers once
again.

Long Term...SHRA possible across the interior Wednesday, and
potentially Thursday as well. Locations may see overnight valley
fog development. Warm, moist air over the coastal waters may
create patches of low stratus or fog near coastal terminals like
RKD and PWM.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...West winds of 10 to 15 kt will continue tonight,
with more of a turn to the south Tuesday. Seas remain 2 to 3
feet.

Long Term...Seas should remain 2 to 3 ft through the period with
mainly southerly winds. A warm front may cross the waters
Thursday into Friday, with a cold front then passing the waters
Friday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Cornwell