492
FXUS61 KGYX 101433
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1033 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Somewhat unsettled daytime weather is expected to continue
into Tuesday as upper level low pressure lingers overhead.
Warmer and drier weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday
with a cold frontal passage possible Friday or Saturday with
more showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM Update...Moist cyclonic flow continues over northern New
England. It`s like a broken record at this point where skies
cloud up and widely scattered showers and isolated tstms develop
each afternoon and today is no different. In fact, showers have
already been underway in portions of our mountain zones. The
southernmost zones in ME and NH may remain dry with continued
sunshine. Little change to the going forecast.

Previously...

Update...
Scattered showers will continue over northern areas and diminish
slightly as the exit the higher terrain. Daytime heating however
will allow for a chance of a shower over southern areas as well
as the day proceeds. Have upped pops slightly with the latest
near term update, however any precipitation should be brief.

Prev Disc...
A slightly drier westerly flow will allow for sunshine this
morning, mainly outside the mountains. Upslope conditions will
allow for continued mostly cloudy skies in the north.

The periods of sunshine will allow for a warmer day than
yesterday. Temperatures will reach the lower 70s for highs
although readings will only be in the 60s in the mountains as we
as the Midcoast region due to the chilly waters off the Gulf of
Maine. Across southern New Hampshire, temperatures will top out
in the mid to upper 70s.

With the daytime heating, convective showers will develop
beneath a persistent upper level trough. These will mainly be
in the afternoon and also mostly across areas away from the
coast. A rumble of thunder or two remains possible across the
north as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Patchy fog tonight will lead to some sunshine once again Tuesday
morning. However, it will be a carbon copy day to Monday with
clouds filling in. Another showers will be possible, mainly in
the afternoon and mostly away from the coastline. Temperatures
will be very similar to Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview: High pressure passes to the south Wed/Thurs as lift
remains limited for possible shower coverage. Low pressure
tracking across Quebec will remain north Friday, but bring
warm/cold fronts into the region which will aid in development
of more widespread showers or thunderstorms late week.
Temperatures mild through midweek, increasing late week.

Details: Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday with cool NW to W
flow moderating temperatures and little lift to speak of. But,
there will be plenty of moisture through the column for cloud
cover and the chance for showers where daytime
heating/convergence can muster weak convection. Guidance is
actually quite spread out for QPF both days, but have currently
limited this to the mountains on Tuesday. This seems to be a
good bet considering weak onshore flow to the SE and incoming
northwesterly flow on the other side. Shear and storm motion are
weak, so these may stay put over summits with little movement.
Think the same could be in store for Wednesday, but drier air
will be at the surface to limit shower coverage further.

Later in the week is a bit more uncertain, but warmer. Thursday
may be dry, but there will also be a warm front in the region
that could focus some shower development late in the day. The
positioning of this will be determined by the parent low that
will be tracking across Quebec late week. This leads into Friday
when conditions may be more primed for thunderstorms when the
low nears and pulls a cold front through during the day or later
in the evening. Will keep a wide window here given the
uncertainties, but CSU MLP for severe has been highlighting
portions of the area fairly consistently Friday. Should the low
move through as scheduled in the Friday timeframe, a pleasant
weekend may be in store with drier conditions and temperatures
in the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions are expected early this morning
except for patchy fog. A few convective showers and storms will
occur again today, and this would be mainly in the afternoon
and across the northern mountains. Similar conditions will
follow on Tuesday.

Long Term...Some lowered ceilings will be possible across
northern NH and far western ME Tuesday night, trending VFR
Wednesday. The airmass mid week could support some low stratus
or fog over the coastal waters, thus some terminals such as RKD
or PWM could be impacted at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...West to southwest winds of 10 to 15 kt with gusts
around 20 kt will continue today and into Tuesday, with more of
a turn to the south Tuesday night. Seas remain 2 to 3 feet.

Long Term...Light SSE flow Weds -Thurs with wave heights 1 to 2
ft as broad low pressure passes to the north with another
surface low to the south. High pressure passes south mid to late
week. This will keep moisture in the region that could develop
marine status or fog through much of the week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Cannon