971
FXUS61 KGYX 120653
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
253 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop today as an upper
level low continues to slowly move through, with the most
widespread shower activity expected across the higher terrain.
Temperatures moderate on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front crosses New England on Friday, with high
pressure building in behind the front for the weekend. The high
moves offshore early next week, setting up a moderating trend
with warm temps likely next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Plenty of cloud cover remains in place, mainly over northern and
western portions of the forecast area this morning along with
patchy fog. A few showers per current radar trends will continue
in this region as well.

The latest HREF solution once again has this cloud cover
expanding over southern portions of the forecast area with
onshore winds allowing for the most stabilization along the
coastline.

Afternoon heating will combine with a departing upper level low
pressure system to trigger some scattered showers across the
region this afternoon, especially the higher terrain. Some
limited instability will allow for a thunderstorm or two mainly
away from the coastline in slow moving precipitation embedded in
the weak flow. This is in good agreement with the latest SPC
thunderstorm outlook. Afternoon highs will mainly be in the
70s, but cooler temperatures in the 60s will continue for the
Midcoast region where winds will be onshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Any leftover showers after sunset and increased stabilization
will gradually diminish tonight. In it`s wake, sufficient low
level moisture and a limited flow over the region will once
again allow for patchy fog. The HREF continues to suggest
maritime fog off the Gulf of Maine may attempt to move into the
coastline region.

Heights rises will finally arrive on Thursday as the stubborn
upper level low pressure system shifts east and weakens over the
Canadian Maritimes. This will allow for mainly dry conditions.
Warm air advection will allow for H8 temperatures to reach +14C
by late in the day. Sunshine and mixing will allow for afternoon
highs to reach the 75 to 85 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overview...

A cold front passes through to close out the week, with high
pressure bringing dry and seasonable conditions for the weekend.
The high moves offshore next week, setting up an extended
warming trend with a ridge building across the eastern US.

Details...

Any showers or thunderstorms are expected to hold off until
after dark Thursday evening as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. Weakening showers and a few thunderstorms reach into
northern areas during the overnight hours as the front
approaches. The front then crosses during the daytime on Friday.
Showers are still likely across northern areas early on Friday,
but the better chance for thunderstorms looks to be across
southern areas where more daytime heating can occur before the
front`s arrival. Some strong storms will be possible with the
front as dew points climb into the 60s during the day on Friday,
but the timing of the front will be important to see if we end
up with anything more widespread or severe. A delayed frontal
passage of only a couple hours increases this threat, so we`ll
be monitoring it over the next couple of days.

The front clears the coast Friday night, with high pressure
building in from the northwest for the weekend. The high brings
much drier air and mainly sunny conditions. Temps look
seasonable on Saturday, with northwesterly downslope flow
allowing the coast to warm to near 80, while the mountains stay
mainly in the mid to upper 60s. Saturday night looks crisp in
most spots, with lows mainly in the 40s and dry conditions.
Temps begin to moderate on Sunday as the high moves overhead,
with highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. A
seabreeze develops during the afternoon along the coast as the
high moves offshore, knocking back temps along the coast in the
afternoon.

The high moves offshore and begins to strengthen through
midweek, likely centered between Nova Scotia and Bermuda. This
is the sign at the surface of a building ridge across the
Northeast and Great Lakes next week, helping to bring some
potentially significant heat to New England next week.
Temperatures steadily moderate early next week, with highs into
the 80s for most areas in increasing southwesterly flow, except
for the MidCoast which holds in the 70s. Temps likely then warm
to near 90 in a lot of spots by Tuesday.

Afterwards, the heat looks poised to continue to build through
midweek as the ridge builds. As with the prospect of any period
of heat in New England from this far out, there are still of lot
of different factors that can serve as spoilers that we need to
remain mindful of. There will likely be leftover MCSs
transiting the ridge from the Plains, and uncertainty on whether
these will move through New England or north of the area. There
are prospects of a cut off low developing south of Atlantic
Canada, with the chance of this delivering a back door front
with easterly flow by late next week. So while all signs are
pointing towards heat at this point, there are still other
factors we need to remain mindful of as the possible peak of the
heat remains over a week away.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...A few scattered showers and an isolated
thunderstorm can be expected this afternoon with a brief period
of MVFR or even IFR conditions. This will mainly be away from
the coast.

Patchy fog may develop again tonight with IFR conditions in some
of the interior valleys. Fog may also develop along portions of
the coastline.

Thursday will be mainly dry after some early morning fog and
IFR/LIFR conditions. The fog may linger across portions of the
coastline.

Long Term...Some showers and storms bring brief restrictions to
most terminals Friday afternoon. VFR then prevails from Friday
night through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Below SCA conditions with waves 2 to 3 ft and
a general southerly gradient across the waters. Marine fog
development will be likely over the next 24 to 36 hours as humid
conditions arrive.

Long Term...SCA conditions are possible Thursday night and
Friday ahead of a cold front. The front crosses the waters
Friday night. Fair conditions are then expected for the weekend
and early next week as high pressure settles along the Eastern
Seaboard.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Cannon