154
FXUS61 KGYX 270229
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1029 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will settle across central New England this
evening, bringing some unsettled weather into Monday. A more
organized system approaches late Monday into Monday evening
bringing widespread showers to the region. An upper level
trough crosses the region Wednesday through Friday with more
scattered showers and near seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1025 PM Update...No big changes to the going forecast. A few
thunderstorms have developed over southern NH. These shouldn`t
last too long as instability will wane. However, pop up showers
with isolated thunder will remain possible overnight. Otherwise,
will be watching for coastal fog, possibly becoming dense.

Previously...

630 PM Update...Have updated the forecast to lower PoPs some
across the area for early this evening, especially in central NH
and adjacent SW Maine. A few showers and thunderstorms have
developed across Massachusetts as of this writing but visible
satellite shows the coverage of cumulus waning across southern
NH and northward. Can`t rule out a couple of pop-up convective
showers with the waning solar heating, weak WAA, and a few
subtle convergence zones floating around. Therefore, haven`t
totally erased PoPs for southern NH early this evening. Drier is
the trend though.

Previously...

A weak boundary will remain draped over southernmost New
Hampshire this evening. This will be in proximity to an unstable
atmosphere with increased CAPE values but limited dynamics.
Nevertheless, a few showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop. The precipitation will diminish during the overnight
hours.

The latest HREF solution indicated lowering ceilings during the
overnight hours tonight. Patchy fog will likely develop as well
in the moist environment as wind trajectories will be off the
Gulf of Maine. Afternoon satellite imagery and surface
observations shows this developing stratus deck off the southern
New England coastline which will expand and track poleward with
time.

Temperatures will be fairly uniform from north to south during
the overnight hours. Look for readings to be mainly in the
lower to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions deteriorate for Memorial Day. Low pressure will
intensify and track over the Great Lakes region on Monday. This
will drive a cold front towards our region. Ahead of the front,
a deep moisture supply on southeasterly winds will allow for
scattered shower activity Monday morning to expand to widespread
precipitation from west to east in the afternoon. Temperatures
will be fairly uniform again with mostly 50s across the region
for a cold day. The exception will be over western New Hampshire
where readings will climb into the 60s.

PWATs will continue to increase Monday night, climbing to an
axis with readings approaching 2 inches by late Monday night.
Showers will continue with locally heavy rainfall possible.
Upslope conditions will be underway with mesoscale models
suggesting that the southeast facing, higher terrain will pick
up the highs rainfall totals. Surface dew points will be on the
high side in the 55 to 65 degree range, making for a mild night.
Plenty of low level will be in place for more patch fog as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overview: An upper level
trough and cutoff low pressure system will settle near Northern
New England through much of next week, which will result in
scattered showers at times along with near average temperatures.
Drier conditions are then possible by next weekend.

Impacts: Little to no major weather related impacts are expected.

Forecast Details: A sfc cold front will cross on Tuesday with drying
westerly winds filtering in by the afternoon. Showers will exit from
west to east during the morning with perhaps a few lingering showers
across the mtns into the afternoon. Cloudy skies early in the day
will become partly cloudy late with high temperatures into the 70s
to lower 80s from north to south. Other than an isolated shower
across the mtns and near Canadian Border, Tuesday night will be dry
with lows into the 50s. A secondary cold front will then cross on
Wednesday into Thursday as we remain under broad cyclonic flow with
cutoff low pressure near the region. This will result in renewed
chances for scattered showers at times along with partly sunny
skies. Highs on Wednesday will be mild ahead of the front with
readings into the 70s to near 80 degrees before cooler air arrives
on Thursday with highs only into the 50s across the north and 60s to
perhaps near 70 south.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible on Wednesday as daytime heating
allows for some modest instability to develop. Thursday night will
be on the cool side with lows perhaps into the 30s across the north
and 40s elsewhere. Slightly warmer temperatures are then possible on
Friday as the h5 trough axis slowly begins to move east and much of
the day should be dry. After another cool night on Friday,
temperatures will slowly begin to recover towards next weekend with
mainly dry conditions likely.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Ceilings and visibilities may be lowering in patchy
fog and the formation and expansion of a stratus deck possibly
late tonight. Some IFR/LIFR conditions possible mainly near the
coastline. Conditions improve somewhat on Monday only to lower
late Monday and Monday night in precipitation, low clouds and
patchy fog.

Long Term...Improving flight conditions back to VFR are likely
from west to east on Tuesday behind a cold front with southerly
winds becoming westerly at 10-15 kts, gusts to 20 kts. Mainly
VFR conditions are then likely Tuesday night through Friday,
although some MVFR restrictions will be possible at times within
scattered -SHRA and lower ceilings. Some nighttime valley fog
will also be possible, which could result in additional
restrictions at KLEB and KHIE.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Will raise flags for Memorial Day on this package.
An east to southeast gradient increases sufficiently to bring
gusts to 25 kt+ across the outer waters. Seas will be building
as well during the day and continuing into Monday night. SCAs
have also been raised for Penobscot Bay.

Long Term...Southerly winds will diminish below 25 kts on
Tuesday while becoming westerly behind a cold front by Tuesday
evening. Winds will then primarily remain out of the west
through the remainder of the week with gusts at times
approaching 20 kts. Seas of 4-6 ft across the outer waters are
likely Tuesday through part of Wednesday before decreasing and
remaining below 5 ft through the remainder of the week. Across
the bays seas of generally 1-3 ft can be expected.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ151.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Tubbs
AVIATION...
MARINE...