576
FXHW60 PHFO 061943
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
943 AM HST Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A surface ridge will remain just north of Kauai during the next
couple days, keeping the trades light and allowing for land and
sea breezes to form across much of the state. The ridge will lift
northward this weekend allowing trade winds to gradually return
and strengthen, with moderate to locally breezy conditions
returning Sunday through the middle of next week. Very dry
conditions will greatly limit shower activity through the weekend,
with a slight increase in windward showers expected Monday and
Tuesday. A more typical trade wind pattern should return by the
middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Currently at the surface, a east to west oriented ridge of high
pressure has settled southward to around 150 miles north of
Kauai, and this has weakened the trades with land breezes present
in many leeward areas. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly
clear conditions island wide this morning. Radar imagery and rain
gage observations continue to show dry conditions across the
state. Expect clouds to build along the upslope and interior
portions of the island today as a sea breeze develops this
afternoon. Clouds should clear overnight with the land breeze.
Chances of showers will remain very limited as a very low
inversion (4 kft) will keep any cloud development very shallow.

The land/sea breeze pattern will hold through Friday as the ridge
of high pressure remains north of the state, keeping the trades
light and an area of slightly above normal moisture remains over
the state. The ridge will begin to lift northward over the weekend
allowing the trades to gradually strengthen, with moderate to
locally breezy conditions expected Sunday through the middle of
next week. Clouds and showers will tend to focus along windward
and mauka areas, however shower activity will remain limited
across the entire state due to very stable and low inversion
levels. The trade wind inversion will begin to lift early next
week, which should bring a slight increase in trade wind showers
Monday and Tuesday, while still remaining drier than normal for
this time of year. A more typical trade wind pattern should return
by the middle of next week as the trade wind inversion rises
further.



&&

.AVIATION...

Trade winds will gradually weaken over the next twenty-four hours
as the pressure gradient across the Islands relaxes further. This
will allow sea breezes to predominate along leeward coasts in the
afternoon and early evening hours. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging
building in from the east will make for an increasingly drier air
mass later in the week.

A strong inversion aloft around 05 kft will both encourage
morning low clouds and inhibit afternoon shower development. Low
clouds have persisted overnight across the state, especially
along windward coasts. Low clouds are expected to lift and
dissipate around noon in response to daytime heating. Limited
shower development is expected over interior portions of the Big
Island in the late afternoon and early evening.


&&

.MARINE...
The ridge to the north of the islands continues to slowly sink
southward, weakening trade winds over the region. Expect wind
speeds to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold
through the end of the week. The ridge will lift northward over
the weekend, allowing moderate trade winds to build back. Models
show the potential for SCA conditions across typical windier
waters around Maui County and the Big Island by Sunday.

A south-southwest swell will arrive later today and peak Friday.
A moderate long period south-southwest swell will build into this
weekend, peaking Sunday night into Monday near High Surf Advisory
levels. A moderate long period south swell is expected to reach
HSA levels late next week. The current small northwest swell
continues to decline. Another small pulse from the northwest is
expected to build through this afternoon, keeping surf elevated.
Wind waves for east facing shores have diminished significantly
and will remain small into the weekend.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Ahue
MARINE...Powell