902
FXHW60 PHFO 071300
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
300 AM HST Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds will continue today with ridge just north of Kauai.
Over the weekend the ridge is expected to lift northward, allowing
trade winds to gradually return and strengthen. Moderate to
locally breezy trade wind conditions are expected by Sunday, and
persist into the middle of the new week. Very stable conditions
will greatly limit shower activity through the weekend, with a
slight increase in windward showers expected Monday and Tuesday. A
more typical trade wind pattern should return by the middle of
next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
As expected, no significant changes to the forecast or forecast
philosophy with the morning package. The PoPs and associated
fields were updated to reflect the latest guidance from the NBM
from Monday night onwards. A relatively dry trade wind pattern is
expected, through mid week, with a more typical trade wind
pattern expected Thursday onwards.

An east to west oriented ridge remains north of Kauai, maintaining
light winds across the state. As expected, clouds largely
dissipated over the islands overnight with land breezes that
formed in the light wind regime. Some cloud development is
expected over the islands today with afternoon sea breezes. Chances
of showers will remain very limited as the inversion heights
remains below 5 kft, which will keep cloud development very
shallow.

The ridge will begin to lift northward over the weekend, which
will allow the trades to gradually return from south to north.
Moderate to locally breezy conditions are expected by Sunday and
persist into the middle of next week. Clouds and showers will
return to the more typical windward and mauka areas, however
shower activity will remain limited across the entire state over
the weekend due to very stable conditions from low inversion
levels. The trade wind inversion will begin to lift early next
week, which should bring a slight increase in trade wind showers
Monday and Tuesday, but will still remain drier than normal for
this time of year. A more typical trade wind pattern should return
during the middle to latter half of the week with rising
inversion heights.


&&

.AVIATION...

A weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain light
winds across the state today. As a result, daytime sea breezes
and nighttime land breezes are expected to develop. Then winds
will gradually strengthen tomorrow as the ridge of high pressure
lifts slightly northward. Shower activity is expected to remain
limited through the period due to the presence of a relatively dry
air mass. VFR conditions will generally prevail, with brief MVFR
conditions possible through this evening.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for
leeward sections of the Big Island. These conditions should
improve later this morning as land breezes help to dispel the
lower cloud cover.


&&

.MARINE...
A weak elongated ridge in the northern offshore waters will hold
in place over the region. Expect wind speeds to remain below Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold through Saturday. High pressure
looks to redevelop north of the state over the weekend allowing
moderate trade winds to build back. Models show the potential for
SCA conditions across typical windier waters around Maui County
and the Big Island by Sunday.

The current south-southwest swell will peak today and steadily
decline through the weekend. Another, yet bigger moderate long
period south- southwest swell will build through Saturday, peak Sunday
night into Monday and could reach High Surf Advisory level
criteria of 10 feet at the peak of the event. A moderate long
period south swell is expected to reach HSA levels late next week
too.

The current small northwest swell continues to decline. However,
a reinforcing pulse from the northwest will build in late this
afternoon to give north facing shores a small bump. Wind waves
for east facing shores have diminished significantly and will
remain small into the weekend.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Shigesato