529
FXHW60 PHFO 080631
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
831 PM HST Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Light to gentle easterly trade winds will persist into Saturday
as a ridge of high pressure meanders north of the state. Trade
winds will briefly shift out of the northeast as a ridge of high
pressure moves from west to east, north of the state then
gradually strengthen. Moderate to locally breezy easterly trade
wind conditions are expected by Sunday, and persist into the
middle of the new week. Very stable conditions will greatly limit
shower activity through the weekend, with a slight increase in
windward showers expected Monday and Tuesday. A more typical trade
wind pattern should return by the middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
No updates to the forecast this evening, and only anticipate minor
tweaks with the morning package.

A ridge remains just north of Kauai, bringing a hybrid sea breeze
and gentle easterly trade wind flow across the state. This
afternoon we saw low level clouds confined along windward slopes
and select leeward slopes where sea breezes had become well
established, with rainfall totals remaining light. Land breeze
are expected tonight that will help clear some clouds, especially
for leeward areas through the overnight hours. This dry hybrid
trade wind and land/sea breeze pattern is expected to persist into
Saturday.

The ridge will begin to lift northward and shift eastward Saturday
afternoon and evening, and that will shift the winds to the
northeast for a brief time. Expect moderate to locally breezy
easterly trades to build back in on Sunday, and then persist into
the middle of the week as the ridge continues to shift northeast
of the state. Clouds and showers will return to the more typical
windward and mauka areas with the returning trades, however
shower activity will remain limited due to very stable conditions
from low inversion heights, and a dry airmass. The trade wind
inversion will begin to lift early next week, which should bring a
slight increase in trade wind showers Monday and Tuesday, but
will still remain drier than normal for this time of year. A more
typical trade wind pattern should return during the middle to
latter half of the week with rising inversion heights.


&&

.AVIATION...

A ridge of high pressure just north of the state will maintain
light trade winds across the region tonight into Saturday. Land
breezes will help to clear some cloud cover across sheltered
leeward areas later tonight, but with the trades expected to
strengthen to become locally breezy by tomorrow afternoon, sea
breezes may have a harder time developing. Shower activity will
continue to remain limited due to a strong ridge of high pressure
aloft. With the strong inversion, ceilings will be quite low with
any clouds, which will allow for periods of MVFR conditions.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for
parts of the Big Island. Satellite imagery shows some low clouds
moving in across most of the island chain early this evening,
which may temporarily bring MVFR conditions to these areas. Land
breezes should eventually help clear the clouds over for leeward
areas, but it may take most of the night to fully clear out.


&&

.MARINE...
A weak elongated ridge in the northern offshore waters will hold
in place over the region. Expect wind speeds to remain below Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold through the day Saturday. High
pressure will redevelop north of the state over the weekend,
allowing moderate to locally strong trade winds to build back.
Models show the potential for SCA conditions across typical
windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island as early as
Saturday afternoon through early next week.

The current south-southwest swell has peaked and will hold through
tonight before steadily declining Saturday. A High Surf Advisory
(HSA) for all south facing shores is in effect through tonight. A
bigger moderate long period south- southwest swell will build
through Saturday, then peak Sunday night into Monday. The HSA will
likely be dropped Saturday morning than reissued coinciding with
the next swell as it is likely it will generate HSA criteria surf
at its peak. Yet another long period south swell may generate HSA
threshold surf late next week.

The current small northwest swell continues to decline. However,
a reinforcing pulse from the northwest will continue tonight and
give north facing shores a small bump. Wind waves for east facing
shores have diminished significantly and will remain small into
the weekend.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kauai
South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai West-
Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central
Valley South-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island
South-Big Island Southeast.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Shigesato