283
FXUS64 KHGX 061731
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

For the most part, warm quiet weather will prevail across SE TX for
the short term. Ridging aloft will continue to amplify across W TX/
NM the next couple of days with weak surface high pressure persist-
ing over the region. Slightly lower dewpoints (in the wake of a now
stationary boundary) along with the mostly clear skies will help to
give us warm (slightly above normal) daytime temperatures (highs in
the lower to mid 90s) with heat index values ranging from 100F-105F
during the afternoons. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s across
much of the CWA (to the upper 70s at the immediate coast). A return
of light onshore winds could add a couple of degrees to these read-
ings for tomorrow night. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The dominant upper ridge will remain in place through the weekend,
with hot and humid but otherwise rain-free conditions expected to
prevail through Sunday. Diurnal thunderstorm activity will
struggle to develop under the influence of a pronounced midlevel
capping inversion, which has kept the PoP forecast near zero
through the end of the weekend. The main concern instead will be
heat, with high temperatures on both days reaching the low to mid
90s while dew points sit in the low to mid 70s. While this will
produce maximum heat index values of around 105 (below our
advisory threshold), relatively light winds and mostly clear
skies may aggravate potential heat exposure. As such, heat safety
measures should still be considered.

A pattern shift arrives on Monday, with global models remaining in
agreement in depicting the approach of a cold front extending from
a surface low over the Northeastern CONUS early on Monday. While
the boundary appears likely to stall out before reaching the
coast, it will nonetheless bring a chance of widespread showers
and storms throughout the day on Monday. That being said, we
currently do not anticipate a severe weather and/or flooding
threat. An active pattern will take hold into at least the middle
part of next week as a robust midlevel trough swings into the
South Central CONUS. As the aforementioned boundary continues to
linger over the area, additional showers and storms will be
possible. Expect high temperatures a few degrees lower to start
off the week, with most locations in the upper 80s to near 90. Low
temperatures should continue to remain mainly in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Looks to be a pretty calm day with winds of 10kts or less. Mist
is expected to arrive around 6z, bringing with it clear skies and
light, variable winds. This mist should only cause a slight
reduction in visibility, but will go back to P6SM around 12z. In
terms of cloud cover, some mostly clear skies with a few high
clouds possible.

Thompson/Adams

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Lighter winds and lower seas will prevail through the weekend.
There will be a chance for some patchy fog tonight, but
visibilities should not get low enough as to require any fog
advisories. There remains a risk of rip currents through the rest
of the day today. Heading into next week, a more active weather
pattern will develop with chances of thunderstorms returning to
the forecast beginning on Monday and prevailing through at least
Wednesday.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  95  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  79  89  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Thompson/Adams
MARINE...Cady