849
FXUS64 KHGX 232024
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
324 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Overnight MCS and its associated development (via daytime heating
along/near the lingering outflow boundaries) just north of the CWA
could sneak into portions of the Brazos Valley through this even-
ing. But the main issue(s) with this activity has been the fairly
widespread blow-off cloud cover this afternoon across this region.
Per models, we could see a repeat of sorts for tomorrow afternoon
given the proximity of the dryline over Central TX and additional
disturbances embedded in the zonal mid/upper level flow. While the
"best" chances are still going to be somewhat low (POPs 20%-30%),
they should also be for mainly our NW/W counties for the late af-
ternoon/early evening hours tomorrow.

Otherwise, for the rest of SE TX, no major changes are expected as
the warm/humid summer weather persists...fueled by the moderate to
occasionally strong S/SE winds. Rain chances remain limited as the
cap persists. Lows tonight and tomorrow night should be in the mid
to upper 70s. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 90s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The long holiday weekend is looking quite hot thanks to the
continued presence of the mid/upper subtropical ridge over Mexico
and a veering wind profile that will support WAA in the lower
levels. Inland afternoon high temperatures are expected to range
from the low/mid 90s Saturday, mid 90s on Sunday, an mid/upper 90s
on Monday. With dew points in the 70s, expect heat index values to
be ~10 degrees hotter than the actual temperatures. Much of the
region is forecast to approach Heat Advisory criteria by Sunday,
then reach advisory criteria on Monday. Experimental HeatRisk
guidance shows widespread High Risk (Level 3 of 4) on Saturday and
Sunday, with areas of Extreme Risk (Level 4 of 4) on Monday.
Needless to say, the chance of needing heat advisories is
increasing for the Sunday-Monday time frame. Afternoon
temperatures at the immediate coast will generally be in the upper
80s to near 90 with heat index values 98-102F. So don`t expect
THAT much heat relief at the coast. In addition, the rip current
risk will be relatively high at the beaches this weekend.
Practicing heat safety will be must over the holiday weekend. If
at the beach, swim near a life guard and away from piers and
jetties. If caught in a rip current, do not panic and swim
parallel to shore. Regarding heat, drink plenty of fluids, wear
light clothing, take frequent breaks (preferable inside) if
working/playing outside, and NEVER leave children and pets in
vehicles.

A weak front may approach from the north Monday night into Tuesday
and bring us a shot of showers/thunderstorms. For now, PoPs remain
low. But some of the global guidance suggests that may need to
increase those PoPs in future updates. Forecast afternoon temps
drop to the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday/Wednesday with lower
humidity.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

There`s quite a bit of blow-off cloud cover from the storms just to
the north of the CWA continuing to move over parts of our area this
afternoon. Otherwise, not a lot of changes with the ongoing persist-
ence forecast of mostly MVFR (some IFR) ceilings overnight/into the
mid morning...to mostly VFR during the afternoon/evening hours with
this package. Models are hinting at another round of storms for the
NW/W portions of the CWA for late tomorrow afternoon, but not confi-
dent enough to include the mention of precipitation at this time.
41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Moderate to occasionally strong southeast winds will continue
through the weekend. Winds and seas are likely to reach Small
Craft criteria at times. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect into
this evening due to 20 to 25 knot winds and seas up to 8 feet.
These conditions might improve somewhat tonight into tomorrow
morning. However, computer model guidance has generally been under
estimating winds and seas offshore today. Therefore, we cannot
rule out having to extend the Small Craft Advisory further into
the overnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers.
The Trinity River at Liberty will remain in major flood stage until
further notice. The Trinity River at Riverside is forecast to
continue on a downward trend from moderate flood stage into minor
flood stage early Thursday morning. Last up for the Trinity River is
Moss Bluff which remains in moderate flood stage and is expected to
continue on its steady recession through the end of the week.

Along the Brazos River, there are three gauges currently in minor
flood stage: Richmond, Rosharon, and Sugar Land. Richmond and Sugar
Land have already reached their crests and are forecast to gradually
trend downward...and Richmond is forecast to drop out of minor flood
stage on Thursday morning. Rosharon on the other hand is still
rising and is forecast to crest just below moderate flood stage on
Thursday. As always, we will continue to monitor observations
and trends.

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flood threat persists.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  94  75  94 /  20  20  10   0
Houston (IAH)  77  94  77  94 /  10  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  78  85  79  86 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Self