661
FXUS64 KHGX 041759
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Not much in the way of change to the overall synoptic pattern is
expected in the immediate term with hot and humid conditions
prevailing throughout the remainder of the week and into the
upcoming weekend. As a midlevel ridge continues to build gradually
into the area, scattered storm chances remain in the forecast as a
series of midlevel disturbances pass just to our north. HiRes models
show convective initiation to our north both late this morning and
tomorrow morning, each associated with a passing midlevel shortwave.
While SBCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg at times and abundant
moisture availability (PWs ~2.0 in) will support some isolated
storms this afternoon, strong to severe storm potential will
generally be inhibited by limited effective layer shear and the
presence of an inversion around 850mb. Upstream conditions tomorrow
are a bit more favorable, with models continuing to indicate a
linear mode of convection as a MCS pushes towards SE TX just after
sunrise. That being said, a continued lack of deep shear as well as
a robust capping inversion at the time of the system`s arrival will
likely keep severe storm development at bay.

With high temperatures today approaching the mid-90s and dew points
remaining high in the upper 70s, heat index values may reach as high
as 110 in some locations to the west of the I-45 corridor.
Furthermore, WBGT values in the 87-89 range this afternoon indicate
an elevated heat impact risk, though this risk may be mitigated
somewhat by winds in the vicinity of 15 mph. Nonetheless, we have
gone ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for much of the Western third
of the area for this afternoon. Another Advisory may be needed
tomorrow, though heat stress may be mitigated further by expanding
afternoon cloud cover. Low temperatures will remain in the upper 70s
to near 80.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

On Thursday, a mid-level high begins to expand northward from
northern Mexico into the Four Corners region. This`ll place
Southeast Texas on the eastern edge of ridging aloft, and most of
the area will be under the influence of a subsidence inversion layer
aloft which will keep rain chances on the slim side. There will
still be a few instances where rain chances approach 20% as some
embedded shortwaves pass through and even a frontal boundary
partially moving through portions of the Piney Woods on late Friday
courtesy of an upper level low moving through the Great Lakes
region. Through the weekend though, rain chances are only 20% at
most in the afternoon hours with areas north of I-10 and east of I-
45 having the best potential for seeing showers and storms. It
wouldn`t be out of the realm of possibilities for the seabreeze to
kick up a few storms as well, but it`ll have to battle the cap to
get things going.

It`s June, so if the rain chances are low then that must mean the
temperatures are hot and that is indeed the case! High temperatures
throughout the long term period will be in the low to mid 90s with
low temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 70s. The humidity won`t
be going anywhere unfortunately, so it`ll continue to feel like
100+F (heat index) in the afternoons. Rain chances become a little
bit more notable early next week as the main ridge axis shifts
further west, which will allow for Southeast Texas to be more in
the path of incoming shortwaves from a rather robust upper level
low that looks to sit over the northeastern CONUS for multiple
days...yep the same one that was mentioned in the first paragraph.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Mix of MVFR and VFR ongoing this afternoon. Satellite imagery
shows a SCT to BKN Cu field over SE Texas right now with little to
no change expected through the afternoon. Sites at MVFR may remain
at MVFR through the afternoon with MVFR CIGs developing at all
sites overnight. CLL may reach IFR criteria briefly Wednesday
morning. Winds will be gusty through the afternoon and evening
hours, with gusts to above 20 kts possible. Winds should relax
overnight with gusty winds possible again Wednesday afternoon.
Winds will generally be out of the SE. Scattered thunderstorms are
possible Wednesday morning; however, confidence is low on when and
where storms will occur. Have included VCTS for IAH/HOU. May need
to update CXO/UTS for VCTS with next forecast.

Adams/Thompson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Small craft should continue to exercise caution through midweek as
moderate onshore flow persists with winds around 15-20 knots and
seas around 6 ft in the Gulf waters. Winds and seas may briefly
flirt with advisory criteria at times. This persistent onshore flow
will continue to carry a high risk of rip currents throughout much
of the work week. We`ll also have to monitor for the potential for
minor coastal flooding with water levels approaching 3.0-3.5 ft
above MLLW during times of high tide through midweek. Following
midweek, winds and seas begin to subside.

Batiste

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

There are currently four River Flood Warnings in effect: three along
the Trinity River and one on the Navasota River. The Navasota River
near Normangee (currently in minor flood stage) crested in moderate
flood stage over the weekend and will continue on a gradual
recession and eventually fall below flood stage around midweek. The
Trinity River near Riverside and near Moss Bluff will remain in
minor flood stage until further notice. The Trinity River near
Liberty is currently rising in minor flood stage and will also
remain there until further notice. There isn`t a River Flood Warning
out for the Trinity River near Crockett as of yet, but the latest
forecasts indicate that it will rise into minor flood stage at the
end of the week.

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as river flooding continues.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  77  93  76 /  10  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)  92  79  94  78 /  10  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  87  81  87  81 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ195>198-210>212-
     226-235.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ330-350-370.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning
     for GMZ335-355-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Adams/Thompson
MARINE...Batiste