Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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243 FXUS64 KHGX 301743 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1243 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Another day, another shortwave...the pattern of active weather continue today and Friday with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected. Expect a similar setup to yesterday with scattered convection in the afternoon, mainly associated with diurnal heating and the sea breeze. We remain under an unstable tropical airmass, so storms will once again have the potential to reach severe criteria today. Main hazards will be wind and hail. SPC does have the majority of the area in a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather today. Later in the day an MCS is expected to develop out towards New Mexico and the Panhandle, and will make an eastward progression during the overnight hours. 500mb quasi-zonal flow over the western half of the state will become NW flow over SE Texas, allowing the MCS structure to go from an eastward progression to a SE progression through our CWA Friday morning. Clarity on the timing and intensity has been difficult to come by...the evolution of this system will likely be dependent on mesoscale features that Hi-res models have yet to catch onto...When the MCS reaches our CWA Friday morning, we will still be in an unstable environment, and as it pushes through there will be the potential for damaging winds and hail. Ahead of the MCS we may see a few showers and thunderstorms pop up. With the MCS pushing through in the morning, there may be time for the atmosphere to rebound with diurnal heating. This could allow for redevelopment later in the day behind the initial MCS. Daytime temperatures will continue to be in the 80s to near 90 area wide through the short-term period. Nighttime lows will cool into the 70s to near 80. Adams && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 The parade of shortwaves continue into the start of June. The first shortwave within the long term will be moving through Saturday morning/afternoon bringing showers and thunderstorms to much of the region - though likely better coverage north of I-10. PWATs remain fairly high, around 1.8 to 2.2", so any strong storm the develops may produce locally heavy rainfall. WPC has placed most of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Saturday. SPC has also placed areas generally north of I-10 in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms on Saturday. Like the previous few events, *if* these severe storms materialize, then they may produce strong winds and hail. Another disturbance will quickly follow suit, moving through the SE Texas Sunday morning/afternoon bringing us another round of showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level ridging does begin to build Monday into Tuesday over south Texas pushing the passing shortwaves further north towards the RRV. Still depending on the strength of this ridge, portions of the Piney Woods region may still get the occasionally shower or thunderstorm through midweek next week. The start of climatological Summer (June-July-August) will be starting out near to slightly below normal with high temperatures over the weekend expected to be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. The overnight lows will not be near normal, but well above normal with minimum temperatures expected in the mid to upper 70s (and even low 80s for along the immediate coast). The ridging that begins to build in next week will cause temperatures to creep up with high temperatures in the low 90s on Monday, and then low to mid 90s by Wednesday. High moisture will stick around thanks to southerly flow at the surface, so heat indices near 100 to 105 degrees will return next week. Fowler && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 The forecast through tomorrow is extremely complex and unfortunately features high uncertainty. Isolated to widely scattered shra/tsra activity is possible this afternoon. However, the primary concern is this evening through tomorrow morning when a line of thunderstorms could move through our regions. The timing of tsra is the most uncertain aspect of the forecast. Our current TAFs have trended earlier than the previous update. The uncertainty is why we have not opted for TEMPO / PROB30 groups because confidence remains too low to pin point exact timing. This is the type of forecast that can easily change, likely warranting amendments. The primary concern with these storms will gusty winds and hail. There may be a period of low clouds and shra in the wake of the line. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through the middle of next week with seas around 3 to 5ft. Small craft may need to exercise caution at times, especially during the overnight hours as wind gusts to near 20kt. There will be continued chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Some storms may become strong to severe producing locally gusty winds and elevated seas. The persistent onshore flow will also lead to a high risk of strong rip currents through the weekend. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 86 72 88 / 30 70 40 50 Houston (IAH) 76 88 75 88 / 20 60 40 60 Galveston (GLS) 80 85 79 87 / 20 40 40 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM....Fowler AVIATION...Self MARINE...Fowler