Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
786 FXUS66 KHNX 292026 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 126 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A slight cooling trend will take place today then a warming trend will follow on Thursday and Friday which will result in afternoon highs of 5 to 10 degrees above normal. 2. There is a 60 to 80 percent probability for temperatures to reach or exceed 95 degrees on Friday in the San Joaquin Valley. 3. Breezy west winds are possible tonight and Thursday morning for the Mojave Desert Slopes and Kern County Desert. && .DISCUSSION... Another sunny day across Central California that extends all the way toward the Pacific. At this point, coastal stratus only hugging the Southern California Coastline. Tuesdays passage of a disturbance across the Pacific Northwest disrupted the stratus north of Santa Barbara as temperatures across the area saw a drop today. The disturbance is expected to push further across the Inter-mountain West and allowing the thermal trof to rebound back over California. Therefore, temperatures will begin a warming trend that will continue through the end of the week. Convective-wise, High-Res Short-Range ensemble analysis does show weak instability and some moisture over the Sierra Nevada this afternoon. Yet, with a lack of a forcing mechanism, thunderstorm activity is very unlikely today. As we approach the month of June, the San Joaquin Valley will be flirting with 100 degree reading as Summer-like conditions begin. High-Res Short-Range Ensemble analysis is currently placing a Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 100 degree across the San Joaquin Valley between 20 and 40 percent. Fresno is reporting the higher end PoE of 41 percent on Friday. Therefore, confidence is high that Central California Interior will start a warming trend with Friday afternoon high near or at 100 degrees. The transition between the short-range and longer-range shows another disturbance disrupting the temperature trend as reading began a drop in values. PoE drops to near zero over the weekend before Ensemble Cluster Upper-air Analysis even hints toward the building of the ridge pattern. Therefore, within the next seven days, Friday will be the first shot of reaching 100 degrees, followed by a better chance next Wednesday (Day seven). By next Wednesday, PoE of reaching 100 degrees ranges from 50 to around 65 percent. With values above 50 percent in the long range confidence is high that the San Joaquin Valley will have a good chance of reaching the 100 degree mark. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Operations......Molina Support/IDSS....DS weather.gov/hanford