605
FXUS66 KHNX 291036
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
336 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024


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.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A slight cooling trend will take place today then a warming
trend will follow on Thursday and Friday which will result in
afternoon highs of 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

2. There is a 70 to 90 percent probability for temperatures to
reach or exceed 95 degrees on Friday in the San Joaquin Valley.

3. Gusty west winds are possible tonight and Thursday morning
for the Mojave Desert Slopes and Kern County Desert.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level shortwave trough is currently passing through
the Pacific Northwest region, extending south into central
California. The approaching trough brought warmer than average
temperatures to our area today as it shifted the synoptic flow
aloft to the west. Afternoon maximums reached the low 90s,
around five degrees above normal for this time of year. Stronger
winds have cascaded into the San Joaquin Valley, with sustained
winds around ten miles per hour and gusts around 20 miles per
hour. The elevated winds across the region extend into the
Mojave Desert Slopes where sustained winds of 20 to 30 miles per
hour remain expected through the overnight hours with stronger
gusts up to 45 miles per hour possible. A Wind Advisory will
continue for this area until 8 AM PDT this morning.

The aforementioned trough is anticipated to progress eastward
further inland later today, shifting the synoptic flow over
central California to the west to northwest. A slight cooling
trend is in order as a result of the winds aloft. Short-term,
high resolution ensemble guidance from the HREF indicates less
than a 30% probability for temperatures to exceed 91 degrees
today in the San Joaquin Valley. However, even with this cooling
trend, maximums this afternoon will still be two to four degrees
above seasonal averages. Elevated winds will be present again
across central California Wednesday evening, with the
aforementioned HREF ensemble suggesting a 70 to 80 percent
probability for wind gusts greater than 20 miles per hour in the
San Joaquin Valley. There are similar probabilities for wind
gusts greater than 40 miles per hour in the Mojave Desert Slopes
and an additional Wind Advisory may be considered.

As the upper level trough continues into the central United
States, winds over central California are expected to stagnate,
with the synoptic pattern being on the borderline between
ridging and zonal flow; a warming trend will set up as a result
for Thursday and Friday. According to probabilistic guidance
from the National Blend of Models, afternoon maximums on Friday
have a likely chance (70 to 90 percent) of being the warmest
temperatures so far this year. The current highest temperature
recorded in 2024 is 95 degrees, occurring at both Hanford and
Madera on May 12th. The NBM ensemble also suggests a low to
moderate probability (10 to 40 percent) to exceed 100 degrees in
the San Joaquin Valley on Friday, although Fresno has a slightly
higher probability at 51 percent. Regardless of temperatures
exceeding 100 degrees, afternoon maximums Friday will be up to
fifteen degrees above season normals.

An upper level shortwave trough will bring a cooling trend and
provide some relief for the weekend, with temperatures returning
near 90 degrees Sunday afternoon. However, these temperatures
are projected to be short-lived as zonal flow returns to central
California to begin next week. Cluster analysis indicates a
strong upper level ridge will propagate over the region midweek,
continuing another warming trend. NBM probabilistic guidance
suggests a 60 to 70 percent probability to exceed 100 degrees in
the San Joaquin Valley next Wednesday and Thursday. These
conditions are further corroborated by the Climate Prediction
Center, which gives a moderate (40 percent) risk for excessive
heat for next Thursday, June 6th, through the following Monday.

&&


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA
interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  05/28/2024 14:39
EXPIRES: 05/29/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for CAZ338.
&&

$$

public/aviation...SM
IDSS.............VJP

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