Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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331 FXUS64 KHUN 310719 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 219 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 High cirrus can be seen increasing over the area early this morning, with current temperatures ranging from the upper 60s over NW AL to mid 50s over NE AL. Will continue to see the increase in clouds as an upper trough exits off the northern Atlantic coast and broad upper ridging pushes warm and moist flow into the area. A slow moving warm front will lift north of the area today, and rain chances will increase over northwest AL later this afternoon. Given diurnal heating, a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out before sunset. Otherwise, expect the increase in clouds to limit highs to the mid 80s with winds veering from the east to the southeast by this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Tonight will be mostly dry especially for areas along and east of I-65 as the shortwave trough remains to our west but will continue to move into the area into the morning hours. Southeast flow will increase overnight as well, becoming breezy by Saturday morning. Overnight lows will be limited to the mid to upper 60s with 20-30% for showers and storms west of I-65. Widespread showers and storms are forecast Saturday and Sunday, with the heaviest rain expected Saturday and Saturday night. SPC has placed much of the area in a Marginal or Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms on Saturday, with the risk of damaging straight line winds. As a sfc low lifts north into the Midwest, a limited but marginally supportive shear profile may support the risk for wet microbursts within multi- cell clusters. Will also mention a low risk for flooding in addition to damaging winds, as the atmospheric column will be primed for heavy rain with PWATs between 1.5-1.7". There is some model disagreement regarding how much rain we will see through the day on Sunday, but expect most areas to see at least light rain before the end of the day. With cloudy skies and rain in the forecast, expect highs to be limited to the lower 80s both Saturday and Sunday with warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. Rain chances will decrease significantly by Sunday night (<20%) and fog may become the primary concern depending on how quickly the clouds clear out. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A shortwave across the TN Valley will start off the unsettled pattern that will persist through mid week. An upper level trough in the Northern Plains will develop a sfc low and associated cold front on Tuesday. Another shortwave will slide out ahead of this system to keep low chance (20-30%) of showers and storms in the forecast through Tuesday. The sfc low will remain up in the Great Lakes or just north of there, the cold front will push southeast into the region on Wednesday. We will see an uptick in the coverage of showers and storms (30-50%) before the front pushes through on Thursday. Not expecting severe storms at this time, but will monitor trends as we get closer to the event. Ahead of the front, daytime highs will start off in the lower 80s and climb to encroach 90 degrees by Wednesday with lows around 70 degrees. Behind the front, temps will only slightly improve. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the TAF period. Fog is not expected to develop, given current dewpoints depressions of 10 to 15 degrees seen in observations. Winds continue to stay around 5 knots as well at both terminals. Expect a period of more persistent mid/high cloud cover at KMSL after 9Z. Cannot rule out a -SHRA near the KMSL terminal around daybreak. A PROB30 group for -TSRA was included between 16Z and 20Z at KMSL as well as a warm front moves northward closer to that terminal and daytime instability increases. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...KTW